Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Cavaliers — but Hornets won instead.
Spread: Hornets (-6.5)
Resolved Hornets. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Cavaliers. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
10
Cavaliers 50%
3 arb excluded
$6.7K
$649.14
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Hornetsavg 90¢ | $2.5K | $1.4K | -$446.67 | 53% 330-294 (624) |
| └ Hornets leg | Hornetsavg 90¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$138.97 | |
| └ Cavaliers leg | Cavaliersavg 51.5¢ | $585.55 | — | -$585.64 | |
TA takeormakeARB<$100 | Hornetsavg 50.3¢ | $1.6K | $768 | +$458.03 | 22% 84-295 (379) |
| └ Cavaliers leg | Cavaliersavg 10¢ | $142.45 | — | -$142.45 | |
| └ Hornets leg | Hornetsavg 50.3¢ | $386.38 | $768 | +$600.48 | |
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375 | Hornetsavg 44¢ | $879.16 | $2.0K | +$1.1K | 57% 104-80 (184) |
BI biying88888CTR | Cavaliersavg 56¢ | $895.44 | — | -$895.44 | 19% 30-131 (161) |
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR | Cavaliersavg 50.3¢ | $482.35 | — | -$482.35 | 2% 5-239 (244) |
LI LightParadox | Hornetsavg 49.6¢ | $245.14 | $888.04 | +$642.9 | 28% 130-331 (461) |
VE Venusian | Hornetsavg 49.5¢ | $223.91 | $814.39 | +$590.47 | 27% 128-350 (478) |
MA MadridTime | Hornetsavg 49¢ | $27.57 | $501.23 | +$473.66 | 26% 121-344 (465) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Cavaliersavg 50.3¢ | $293.26 | — | -$293.26 | 28% 121-308 (429) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Hornetsavg 60.6¢ | $324.23 | $230 | +$86.91 | 52% 287-270 (557) |
| └ Hornets leg | Hornetsavg 60.6¢ | $139.31 | $230 | +$90.68 | |
| └ Cavaliers leg | Cavaliersavg 4¢ | $3.77 | — | -$3.77 | |
LI Limousin | Hornetsavg 49¢ | $153.66 | $137.1 | +$53.36 | 26% 127-363 (490) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR | Cavaliersavg 50.4¢ | $922.04 | — | -$467.26 | 53% 214-189 (403) |
SE sentrioCTR | Cavaliersavg 51¢ | $180.12 | — | -$91.86 | 28% 99-254 (353) |
Invested
$2,523.47
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$446.67
Record
53%
330-294 (624)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,592.03
Value
$768
PnL
+$458.03
Record
22%
84-295 (379)
Both legs:
Invested
$879.16
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
57%
104-80 (184)
Invested
$895.44
Value
—
PnL
-$895.44
Record
19%
30-131 (161)
Invested
$482.35
Value
—
PnL
-$482.35
Record
2%
5-239 (244)
Invested
$245.14
Value
$888.04
PnL
+$642.9
Record
28%
130-331 (461)
Invested
$223.91
Value
$814.39
PnL
+$590.47
Record
27%
128-350 (478)
Invested
$27.57
Value
$501.23
PnL
+$473.66
Record
26%
121-344 (465)
Invested
$293.26
Value
—
PnL
-$293.26
Record
28%
121-308 (429)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$324.23
Value
$230
PnL
+$86.91
Record
52%
287-270 (557)
Both legs:
Invested
$153.66
Value
$137.1
PnL
+$53.36
Record
26%
127-363 (490)
Invested
$922.04
Value
—
PnL
-$467.26
Record
53%
214-189 (403)
Invested
$180.12
Value
—
PnL
-$91.86
Record
28%
99-254 (353)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
ARBArbitrage — excluded
takeormake
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375
Hornets — $2.0K
biying88888
CTRCavaliers — $0
Multicoloured-Serf
CTRCavaliers — $0
LightParadox
Hornets — $888.04
Venusian
Hornets — $814.39
MadridTime
Hornets — $501.23
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
CTRCavaliers — $0
RN1
ARBArbitrage — excluded