Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 75¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over25¢Under75¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$504.19

Smart Money Entry

44.6¢ → 75¢

+68% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over25%

Under75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under12 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,566

Combined PnL+$559.01

Over3 traders

Total Value$458.51

Total Shares1,239

Combined PnL-$54.82

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 80% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 62¢	$620	$690	+$70	51% 528-501 (1029)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 40.9¢	$475.06	$429.62	-$45.45	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 32.4¢	$221.72	$358.61	+$187.62	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
FO forecastication4	Underavg 31¢	$150.13	$305.09	+$154.97	34% 182-346 (528)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 35.1¢	$77.44	$131.92	+$54.48	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 41¢	$66.06	$111.17	+$45.11	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 32.3¢	$25.86	$40.95	+$24.54	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 34¢	$14.79	$27.41	+$12.62	41% 1108-1568 (2676)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$28.82	$21.76	-$7.06	49% 430-445 (875)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Underavg 51¢	$9.18	$12.42	+$3.24	49% 588-623 (1211)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$9.45	$7.13	-$2.31	50% 2685-2651 (5336)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 35¢	$3.5	$6.3	+$2.8	47% 1065-1216 (2281)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 35¢	$3.5	$6.3	+$2.8	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 51¢	$2.55	$3.15	+$0.6	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
MI micky456<$100	Underavg 51¢	$0.65	$0.88	+$0.23	47% 590-656 (1246)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$620

Value

$690

PnL

+$70

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$475.06

Value

$429.62

PnL

-$45.45

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$221.72

Value

$358.61

PnL

+$187.62

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

forecastication4

Under

Invested

$150.13

Value

$305.09

PnL

+$154.97

Record

34%

182-346 (528)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$77.44

Value

$131.92

PnL

+$54.48

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$66.06

Value

$111.17

PnL

+$45.11

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$25.86

Value

$40.95

PnL

+$24.54

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$14.79

Value

$27.41

PnL

+$12.62

Record

41%

1108-1568 (2676)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.82

Value

$21.76

PnL

-$7.06

Record

49%

430-445 (875)

justaluckydude<$100

Under

Invested

$9.18

Value

$12.42

PnL

+$3.24

Record

49%

588-623 (1211)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.45

Value

$7.13

PnL

-$2.31

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$3.5

Value

$6.3

PnL

+$2.8

Record

47%

1065-1216 (2281)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$3.5

Value

$6.3

PnL

+$2.8

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$2.55

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$0.6

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

micky456<$100

Under

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.88

PnL

+$0.23

Record

47%

590-656 (1246)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 80% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.