Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (56%) · Bulls at 90¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Timberwolves11¢Bulls89¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 56%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

70.6¢ → 89.5¢

+27% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

9 of 16 top traders (56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves11%

Bulls90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls9 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,639

Combined PnL+$661.58

Timberwolves7 traders

Total Value$739.8

Total Shares7,200

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Bulls — 56%Timberwolves — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Bullsavg 73.6¢	$2.7K	$3.2K	+$570.16	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Timberwolvesavg 43¢	$2.0K	$373.21	$-1.2K	51% 528-501 (1029)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Timberwolvesavg 25¢	$833.17	$333.4	-$499.77	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
JU justaluckydude	Bullsavg 67¢	$202.33	$271.8	+$69.47	49% 588-623 (1211)
SU suitcase6628	Bullsavg 58¢	$191.4	$191.4	-$0	65% 668-360 (1028)
TO topdogbigboi	Bullsavg 59.1¢	$169.8	$188.16	+$18.36	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
38 38791873984189<$100	Bullsavg 58.6¢	$78.13	$81.19	+$3.06	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
TA takeormake<$100	Bullsavg 68.8¢	$26.7	$26.9	+$0.2	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 16¢	$13.37	$16.6	+$11.73	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
NO NotJump<$100	Bullsavg 59¢	$14.69	$14.69	+$0	51% 970-935 (1905)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Bullsavg 65¢	$14.29	$14.41	+$0.12	58% 3760-2730 (6490)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 72¢	$89.15	$5.68	-$10.88	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 41¢	$10.21	$5.35	-$4.86	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 41¢	$14.35	$3.5	-$10.85	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 33¢	$6.8	$2.06	-$4.74	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
CA CandleHammerDrums<$100	Bullsavg 48¢	$0.92	$1.13	+$0.21	49% 572-596 (1168)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Bulls

Invested

$2,731.89

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$570.16

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$2,049.91

Value

$373.21

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

FlaznorpCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$833.17

Value

$333.4

PnL

-$499.77

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

justaluckydude

Bulls

Invested

$202.33

Value

$271.8

PnL

+$69.47

Record

49%

588-623 (1211)

suitcase6628

Bulls

Invested

$191.4

Value

$191.4

PnL

-$0

Record

65%

668-360 (1028)

topdogbigboi

Bulls

Invested

$169.8

Value

$188.16

PnL

+$18.36

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

38791873984189<$100

Bulls

Invested

$78.13

Value

$81.19

PnL

+$3.06

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

takeormake<$100

Bulls

Invested

$26.7

Value

$26.9

PnL

+$0.2

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$13.37

Value

$16.6

PnL

+$11.73

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

NotJump<$100

Bulls

Invested

$14.69

Value

$14.69

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

970-935 (1905)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Bulls

Invested

$14.29

Value

$14.41

PnL

+$0.12

Record

58%

3760-2730 (6490)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$89.15

Value

$5.68

PnL

-$10.88

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

suntoriCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$10.21

Value

$5.35

PnL

-$4.86

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

LimousinCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$14.35

Value

$3.5

PnL

-$10.85

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$6.8

Value

$2.06

PnL

-$4.74

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

CandleHammerDrums<$100

Bulls

Invested

$0.92

Value

$1.13

PnL

+$0.21

Record

49%

572-596 (1168)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

9 of 16 top traders (56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.