Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (73%) · Bulls at 79¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Timberwolves22¢Bulls78¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$107.61

Smart Money Entry

56.2¢ → 78.5¢

+40% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves22%

Bulls79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls8 traders

Total Value$989.17

Total Shares1,528

Combined PnL+$112.01

Timberwolves3 traders

Total Value$70.32

Total Shares262

Combined PnL-$4.4

Bulls — 73%Timberwolves — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Bullsavg 53.8¢	$196.21	$231.54	+$35.33	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
JU justaluckydude	Bullsavg 53.8¢	$151.29	$214.97	+$63.68	49% 588-623 (1211)
FL Flaznorp	Bullsavg 69.2¢	$158.41	$175.15	+$16.74	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Bullsavg 54.5¢	$164.63	$163.15	-$1.48	49% 572-596 (1168)
TO topdogbigboi	Bullsavg 54¢	$118.94	$112.67	-$6.27	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 29¢	$58.86	$67.73	+$8.87	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 29¢	$38.86	$39.53	+$0.67
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 50¢	$20	$28.2	+$8.2
LR lryyy<$100	Bullsavg 54¢	$47.52	$47.08	-$0.44	46% 877-1050 (1927)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 33.7¢	$56.28	$39.24	-$17.04	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
MA MadridTime<$100	Bullsavg 50¢	$37.58	$32.81	+$4.23	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 39¢	$26.91	$16.22	-$10.7	47% 590-656 (1246)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 57¢	$56.82	$14.87	+$23.34	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Bullsavg 52.5¢	$11.58	$11.8	+$0.22	50% 2685-2651 (5336)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Bulls

Invested

$196.21

Value

$231.54

PnL

+$35.33

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

justaluckydude

Bulls

Invested

$151.29

Value

$214.97

PnL

+$63.68

Record

49%

588-623 (1211)

Flaznorp

Bulls

Invested

$158.41

Value

$175.15

PnL

+$16.74

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

CandleHammerDrums

Bulls

Invested

$164.63

Value

$163.15

PnL

-$1.48

Record

49%

572-596 (1168)

topdogbigboi

Bulls

Invested

$118.94

Value

$112.67

PnL

-$6.27

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$58.86

Value

$67.73

PnL

+$8.87

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$38.8629¢+$0.67

Bulls$2050¢+$8.2

lryyy<$100

Bulls

Invested

$47.52

Value

$47.08

PnL

-$0.44

Record

46%

877-1050 (1927)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$56.28

Value

$39.24

PnL

-$17.04

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

MadridTime<$100

Bulls

Invested

$37.58

Value

$32.81

PnL

+$4.23

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

micky456CTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$26.91

Value

$16.22

PnL

-$10.7

Record

47%

590-656 (1246)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$56.82

Value

$14.87

PnL

+$23.34

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Bulls

Invested

$11.58

Value

$11.8

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 79%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.