Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (57%) · Bulls at 54¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Timberwolves47¢Bulls53¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$206.79

Smart Money Entry

44.3¢ → 53.5¢

+21% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves47%

Bulls54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls8 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,213

Combined PnL+$246.19

Timberwolves6 traders

Total Value$665.89

Total Shares998

Combined PnL-$39.4

Bulls — 57%Timberwolves — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Bullsavg 50.3¢	$577.21	$595.13	+$17.92	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Timberwolvesavg 68¢	$392.21	$392.21	+$0	51% 528-501 (1029)
FL Flaznorp	Bullsavg 36.4¢	$249.9	$370.24	+$120.34	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
SU suitcase6628	Bullsavg 48¢	$240.2	$242.5	+$2.3	65% 668-360 (1028)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Timberwolvesavg 86¢	$276.01	$218.28	-$57.73	44% 283-358 (641)
MI micky456ARB<$100	Bullsavg 49¢	$184.57	$167.67	+$31.1	47% 590-656 (1246)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 49¢	$120.82	$133.17	+$23.6
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 36¢	$27	$34.5	+$7.5
38 38791873984189	Bullsavg 47.9¢	$302.85	$157.94	+$18.09	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
JU justaluckydude	Bullsavg 49¢	$108.78	$139.86	+$31.08	49% 588-623 (1211)
TO topdogbigboi	Bullsavg 48.7¢	$108.22	$127.78	+$19.56	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
nigiri99<$100	Bullsavg 14¢	$28.7	$65.6	+$36.9	51% 639-619 (1258)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 40.6¢	$31.66	$35.88	+$4.23	57% 3591-2667 (6258)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 51¢	$10.91	$11.02	+$0.11	50% 2685-2651 (5336)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 49.3¢	$14.7	$5.94	+$13.2	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Bullsavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.7	+$0	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 47¢	$1.77	$2.57	+$0.79	49% 572-596 (1168)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Bulls

Invested

$577.21

Value

$595.13

PnL

+$17.92

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$392.21

Value

$392.21

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

Flaznorp

Bulls

Invested

$249.9

Value

$370.24

PnL

+$120.34

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

suitcase6628

Bulls

Invested

$240.2

Value

$242.5

PnL

+$2.3

Record

65%

668-360 (1028)

Forecastication2CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$276.01

Value

$218.28

PnL

-$57.73

Record

44%

283-358 (641)

micky456ARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$184.57

Value

$167.67

PnL

+$31.1

Record

47%

590-656 (1246)

Both legs:

Bulls$120.8249¢+$23.6

Timberwolves$2736¢+$7.5

38791873984189

Bulls

Invested

$302.85

Value

$157.94

PnL

+$18.09

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

justaluckydude

Bulls

Invested

$108.78

Value

$139.86

PnL

+$31.08

Record

49%

588-623 (1211)

topdogbigboi

Bulls

Invested

$108.22

Value

$127.78

PnL

+$19.56

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

nigiri99<$100

Bulls

Invested

$28.7

Value

$65.6

PnL

+$36.9

Record

51%

639-619 (1258)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$31.66

Value

$35.88

PnL

+$4.23

Record

57%

3591-2667 (6258)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$10.91

Value

$11.02

PnL

+$0.11

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$14.7

Value

$5.94

PnL

+$13.2

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

ferdinand2<$100

Bulls

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$1.77

Value

$2.57

PnL

+$0.79

Record

49%

572-596 (1168)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.