Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (69%) · Bulls at 82¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

Timberwolves18¢Bulls82¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 69%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

43.3¢ → 82¢

+90% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

9 of 13 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves18%

Bulls82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls9 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares6,728

Combined PnL+$2.7K

Timberwolves4 traders

Total Value$536.05

Total Shares2,149

Combined PnL-$648.43

Bulls — 69%Timberwolves — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+35 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBulls 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZZ Zzzz87	Bullsavg 41.9¢	$2.2K	$4.5K	+$2.2K	62% 104-64 (168)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 57.9¢	$1.5K	$784.84	-$715.39	56% 3778-2937 (6715)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 45¢	$248	$471.21	+$223.2
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 57.9¢	$1.3K	$313.64	-$938.59
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 58¢	$1.4K	$713.22	-$644.78	54% 1641-1409 (3050)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 40¢	$198	$423.22	+$225.22
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 58¢	$1.2K	$290	-$870
JU justaluckydude	Bullsavg 53.5¢	$390.76	$606.73	+$215.97	49% 588-623 (1211)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR	Timberwolvesavg 54.9¢	$316.03	$253.33	-$62.69	41% 26-38 (64)
SN SnakeBall	Bullsavg 41.2¢	$102.47	$212.51	+$110.04	47% 1065-1216 (2281)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Timberwolvesavg 60¢	$535.8	$151.81	-$383.99	70% 1725-752 (2477)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Timberwolvesavg 48.4¢	$345.02	$120.76	-$177.59	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
38 38791873984189	Bullsavg 40¢	$148.78	$90.5	+$47.72	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Bullsavg 46¢	$46.66	$86.74	+$40.07	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
0X 0x3814198398E2d02c0e8fBa652345995cF84417bC-1782140092998<$100	Bullsavg 44¢	$52.8	$66.6	+$13.8	50% 12-12 (24)
MA MadridTime<$100	Bullsavg 49¢	$23.33	$39.52	+$16.19	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 49¢	$34.3	$10.15	-$24.15	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Bullsavg 40¢	$2	$4.28	+$2.28	42% 740-1034 (1774)
MI micky456<$100	Bullsavg 51¢	$2.55	$4.28	+$1.73	47% 590-656 (1246)

Zzzz87

Bulls

Invested

$2,248.19

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

62%

104-64 (168)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$1,500.23

Value

$784.84

PnL

-$715.39

Record

56%

3778-2937 (6715)

Both legs:

Bulls$24845¢+$223.2

Timberwolves$1,252.2257.9¢-$938.59

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$1,358

Value

$713.22

PnL

-$644.78

Record

54%

1641-1409 (3050)

Both legs:

Bulls$19840¢+$225.22

Timberwolves$1,16058¢-$870

justaluckydude

Bulls

Invested

$390.76

Value

$606.73

PnL

+$215.97

Record

49%

588-623 (1211)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$316.03

Value

$253.33

PnL

-$62.69

Record

41%

26-38 (64)

SnakeBall

Bulls

Invested

$102.47

Value

$212.51

PnL

+$110.04

Record

47%

1065-1216 (2281)

SunlineTickerCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$535.8

Value

$151.81

PnL

-$383.99

Record

70%

1725-752 (2477)

FlaznorpCTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$345.02

Value

$120.76

PnL

-$177.59

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

38791873984189

Bulls

Invested

$148.78

Value

$90.5

PnL

+$47.72

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Bulls

Invested

$46.66

Value

$86.74

PnL

+$40.07

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

0x3814198398E2d02c0e8fBa652345995cF84417bC-1782140092998<$100

Bulls

Invested

$52.8

Value

$66.6

PnL

+$13.8

Record

50%

12-12 (24)

MadridTime<$100

Bulls

Invested

$23.33

Value

$39.52

PnL

+$16.19

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$34.3

Value

$10.15

PnL

-$24.15

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

ameisgoat11<$100

Bulls

Invested

Value

$4.28

PnL

+$2.28

Record

42%

740-1034 (1774)

micky456<$100

Bulls

Invested

$2.55

Value

$4.28

PnL

+$1.73

Record

47%

590-656 (1246)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

9 of 13 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+35 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBulls 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.