Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (59%). 9 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Hornets vs. Clippers: O/U 219.5

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (69%) · Under at 41¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over59¢Under41¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$44.12

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 41¢

-20% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,593

Combined PnL+$296.67

Under9 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,590

Combined PnL-$252.55

Over — 31%Under — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 43.2¢	$598.15	$857.98	+$259.83	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 52.5¢	$987.98	$771.22	-$216.76	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
TA takeormake	Overavg 56¢	$492.05	$544.77	+$52.72	57% 3727-2840 (6567)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$525	$399	-$126	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$262.5	$304.5	+$42
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$262.5	$94.5	-$168
RN1	Overavg 52¢	$124.28	$125.47	+$1.19	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 45.4¢	$132.16	$119.45	-$12.71	38% 1454-2390 (3844)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 48¢	$114.72	$97.99	-$16.73	38% 1462-2368 (3830)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 64¢	$57.14	$51.78	-$5.36	46% 3434-3964 (7398)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 36¢	$39.42	$22.34	-$17.07	46% 1257-1451 (2708)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$19.25	$18.35	-$0.9	48% 2668-2892 (5560)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$11.76	$11.64	-$0.12	50% 714-704 (1418)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$8.14	$8.14	+$0	49% 417-440 (857)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$2.22	$2.25	+$0.03	49% 2930-3029 (5959)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$0.49	$0.49	-$0.01	48% 654-715 (1369)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$598.15

Value

$857.98

PnL

+$259.83

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$987.98

Value

$771.22

PnL

-$216.76

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$492.05

Value

$544.77

PnL

+$52.72

Record

57%

3727-2840 (6567)

NotJumpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$525

Value

$399

PnL

-$126

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

Both legs:

Invested

$124.28

Value

$125.47

PnL

+$1.19

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$132.16

Value

$119.45

PnL

-$12.71

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$114.72

Value

$97.99

PnL

-$16.73

Record

38%

1462-2368 (3830)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$57.14

Value

$51.78

PnL

-$5.36

Record

46%

3434-3964 (7398)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$39.42

Value

$22.34

PnL

-$17.07

Record

46%

1257-1451 (2708)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.25

Value

$18.35

PnL

-$0.9

Record

48%

2668-2892 (5560)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.76

Value

$11.64

PnL

-$0.12

Record

50%

714-704 (1418)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.14

Value

$8.14

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

417-440 (857)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.22

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.03

Record

49%

2930-3029 (5959)

micky456CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$0.01

Record

48%

654-715 (1369)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.2%

41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$131.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

231.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.