Hornets vs. Clippers: O/U 207.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (64%) · Under at 53¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over48¢Under52¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 64%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$48.52

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 52.5¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$987.65

Total Shares1,906

Combined PnL+$31.77

Over4 traders

Total Value$869.09

Total Shares1,671

Combined PnL+$16.76

Under — 64%Over — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 50.8¢	$850.08	$878.26	+$28.19	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 50¢	$777.23	$798.84	+$21.61	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 50¢	$69.63	$73.11	+$3.48	38% 1437-2313 (3750)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$57.82	$56.05	-$1.77	50% 665-662 (1327)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 65.9¢	$16.8	$13.72	-$3.07	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 43.5¢	$8.7	$10.8	+$2.1	48% 2658-2887 (5545)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 34¢	$9.86	$10.15	+$0.29	44% 350-441 (791)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 44¢	$9.69	$7.27	-$2.42	49% 2903-2977 (5880)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 34¢	$4.42	$4.55	+$0.13	38% 1437-2336 (3773)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 35¢	$3.5	$3.5	+$0	46% 1242-1436 (2678)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$0.49	$0.48	-$0.02	48% 654-715 (1369)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$850.08

Value

$878.26

PnL

+$28.19

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$777.23

Value

$798.84

PnL

+$21.61

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$69.63

Value

$73.11

PnL

+$3.48

Record

38%

1437-2313 (3750)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$57.82

Value

$56.05

PnL

-$1.77

Record

50%

665-662 (1327)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.8

Value

$13.72

PnL

-$3.07

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$8.7

Value

$10.8

PnL

+$2.1

Record

48%

2658-2887 (5545)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$9.86

Value

$10.15

PnL

+$0.29

Record

44%

350-441 (791)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$9.69

Value

$7.27

PnL

-$2.42

Record

49%

2903-2977 (5880)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$4.42

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$0.13

Record

38%

1437-2336 (3773)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

1242-1436 (2678)

micky456CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

654-715 (1369)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.