Spread: Clippers (-7.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (60%) · Hornets at 78¢ · $370 held · ended Nov 15

Clippers23¢Hornets77¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 60%

Total Value

$369.73

Combined PnL

$1.28

Smart Money Entry

64.8¢ → 77.5¢

+20% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Clippers23%

Hornets78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hornets6 traders

Total Value$302.28

Total Shares428

Combined PnL+$7.78

Clippers4 traders

Total Value$67.45

Total Shares208

Combined PnL-$6.5

Hornets — 60%Clippers — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Hornetsavg 63¢	$121.03	$123.98	+$2.95	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
TA takeormake<$100	Hornetsavg 68.8¢	$59.6	$51.85	+$0.07	57% 3689-2778 (6467)
MI micky456<$100	Hornetsavg 66¢	$76.22	$45.9	+$1.68	48% 654-715 (1369)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Hornetsavg 66¢	$42.24	$44.8	+$2.56	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Clippersavg 34¢	$41.48	$42.7	+$1.22	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
PA Pan9X<$100	Hornetsavg 65.1¢	$29.68	$29.18	-$0.5	50% 2219-2233 (4452)
RN1CTR<$100	Clippersavg 39.6¢	$12.47	$12.59	+$0.12	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Clippersavg 37¢	$12.6	$7.66	-$4.94	30% 107-248 (355)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Hornetsavg 59¢	$5.54	$6.57	+$1.03	50% 4065-4065 (8130)
balthazarCTR<$100	Clippersavg 37¢	$7.4	$4.5	-$2.9	42% 5253-7309 (12562)

Flaznorp

Hornets

Invested

$121.03

Value

$123.98

PnL

+$2.95

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

takeormake<$100

Hornets

Invested

$59.6

Value

$51.85

PnL

+$0.07

Record

57%

3689-2778 (6467)

micky456<$100

Hornets

Invested

$76.22

Value

$45.9

PnL

+$1.68

Record

48%

654-715 (1369)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Hornets

Invested

$42.24

Value

$44.8

PnL

+$2.56

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$41.48

Value

$42.7

PnL

+$1.22

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

Pan9X<$100

Hornets

Invested

$29.68

Value

$29.18

PnL

-$0.5

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

RN1CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$12.47

Value

$12.59

PnL

+$0.12

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$12.6

Value

$7.66

PnL

-$4.94

Record

30%

107-248 (355)

6512395314597884<$100

Hornets

Invested

$5.54

Value

$6.57

PnL

+$1.03

Record

50%

4065-4065 (8130)

balthazarCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$7.4

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$2.9

Record

42%

5253-7309 (12562)

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.