Spread: Clippers (-6.5)

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (82%) · Clippers at 94¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Clippers94¢Hornets6¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

38.4¢ → 93.9¢

+145% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Clippers94%

Hornets6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers9 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares4,489

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Hornets2 traders

Total Value$615.55

Total Shares1,448

Combined PnL-$468.9

Clippers — 82%Hornets — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+48 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

73% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Hornets) and the top 1000 (11 on Clippers) disagree here.

ctrClippers 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedHornets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Clippers 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Clippersavg 29.7¢	$300.81	$949.86	+$649.05	50% 4157-4147 (8304)
JU justaluckydude	Clippersavg 31¢	$310	$939	+$629	51% 725-707 (1432)
TA takeormake	Clippersavg 47.6¢	$433.65	$784.03	+$350.38	57% 3736-2860 (6596)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Hornetsavg 68.3¢	$1.2K	$614.78	-$459.31	48% 4971-5335 (10306)
NO NotJump	Clippersavg 50¢	$525	$525	-$0	49% 1309-1353 (2662)
MI micky456	Clippersavg 46.7¢	$364.63	$503.86	+$260.7	48% 666-721 (1387)
RN1	Clippersavg 27.9¢	$87.68	$294.78	+$207.1	54% 6261-5369 (11630)
38 38791873984189	Clippersavg 34.8¢	$85.87	$172.83	+$104.94	48% 4254-4679 (8933)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Hornetsavg 70.8¢	$1.4K	$151.04	$-1.2K	55% 2159-1794 (3953)
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 70.8¢	$1.3K	$115.61	$-1.2K
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 47¢	$17.74	$35.43	+$17.7
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Clippersavg 86¢	$40.67	$44.4	+$3.74	39% 1837-2824 (4661)
PA Pan9X<$100	Clippersavg 31¢	$30.35	$38.47	+$12.62	50% 2334-2317 (4651)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Hornetsavg 27.3¢	$12.43	$0.76	-$9.59	48% 2753-3004 (5757)

6512395314597884

Clippers

Invested

$300.81

Value

$949.86

PnL

+$649.05

Record

50%

4157-4147 (8304)

justaluckydude

Clippers

Invested

$310

Value

$939

PnL

+$629

Record

51%

725-707 (1432)

takeormake

Clippers

Invested

$433.65

Value

$784.03

PnL

+$350.38

Record

57%

3736-2860 (6596)

FlaznorpCTR

Hornets

Invested

$1,159.36

Value

$614.78

PnL

-$459.31

Record

48%

4971-5335 (10306)

NotJump

Clippers

Invested

$525

Value

$525

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

1309-1353 (2662)

micky456

Clippers

Invested

$364.63

Value

$503.86

PnL

+$260.7

Record

48%

666-721 (1387)

RN1

Clippers

Invested

$87.68

Value

$294.78

PnL

+$207.1

Record

54%

6261-5369 (11630)

38791873984189

Clippers

Invested

$85.87

Value

$172.83

PnL

+$104.94

Record

48%

4254-4679 (8933)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Hornets

Invested

$1,359.37

Value

$151.04

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

55%

2159-1794 (3953)

Both legs:

Hornets$1,341.6470.8¢$-1.2K

Clippers$17.7447¢+$17.7

topdogbigboi<$100

Clippers

Invested

$40.67

Value

$44.4

PnL

+$3.74

Record

39%

1837-2824 (4661)

Pan9X<$100

Clippers

Invested

$30.35

Value

$38.47

PnL

+$12.62

Record

50%

2334-2317 (4651)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$12.43

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$9.59

Record

48%

2753-3004 (5757)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+48 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

73% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Hornets) and the top 1000 (11 on Clippers) disagree here.

ctrClippers 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedHornets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Clippers 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.1%

93.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.