Spread: Clippers (-25.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (22%) · Hornets at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Clippers<1¢Hornets>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 22%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$21.5

Smart Money Entry

97¢ → 99.6¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Clippers0%

Hornets100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hornets2 traders

Total Value$997.4

Total Shares1,035

Combined PnL-$6.19

Clippers7 traders

Total Value$11.99

Total Shares911

Combined PnL-$15.31

Hornets — 22%Clippers — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Hornetsavg 97¢	$969.85	$963.88	-$5.97	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
PA Pan9X<$100	Hornetsavg 97.2¢	$34.75	$33.52	-$0.22	50% 2219-2233 (4452)
RN1CTR<$100	Clippersavg 3¢	$7.86	$7.88	+$0.01	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Clippersavg 3¢	$7.5	$2.13	-$5.38	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Clippersavg 3¢	$5.67	$0.85	-$4.82	48% 654-715 (1369)
dips.CTR<$100	Clippersavg 3¢	$3.1	$0.47	-$2.63	48% 1348-1450 (2798)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Clippersavg 3¢	$3	$0.45	-$2.55	58% 4049-2979 (7028)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Clippersavg 2.9¢	$0.09	$0.11	+$0.02	50% 4065-4065 (8130)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Clippersavg 2.4¢	$0.07	$0.11	+$0.04	39% 1675-2667 (4342)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Hornets

Invested

$969.85

Value

$963.88

PnL

-$5.97

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

Pan9X<$100

Hornets

Invested

$34.75

Value

$33.52

PnL

-$0.22

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

RN1CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$7.86

Value

$7.88

PnL

+$0.01

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$7.5

Value

$2.13

PnL

-$5.38

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

micky456CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$5.67

Value

$0.85

PnL

-$4.82

Record

48%

654-715 (1369)

dips.CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$3.1

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$2.63

Record

48%

1348-1450 (2798)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$2.55

Record

58%

4049-2979 (7028)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.11

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

4065-4065 (8130)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.11

PnL

+$0.04

Record

39%

1675-2667 (4342)

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.