Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hornets, while the market favors Clippers (67%). 7 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Clippers (-13.5)

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (50%) · Hornets at 33¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Clippers67¢Hornets33¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 50%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$44.02

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 33.1¢

-52% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

7 of 14 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Clippers 67%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Clippers67%

Hornets33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers7 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,534

Combined PnL+$129.06

Hornets7 traders

Total Value$737.42

Total Shares1,151

Combined PnL-$85.04

Clippers — 50%Hornets — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Hornets) and the top 1000 (7 on Clippers) disagree here.

ctrClippers 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedHornets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Clippers 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	Clippersavg 50¢	$525	$525	+$0	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
RN1CTR	Hornetsavg 86¢	$423.12	$450.18	+$27.06	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
FL Flaznorp	Clippersavg 32.4¢	$140.93	$179.66	+$38.72	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Clippersavg 39.9¢	$57.63	$98.61	+$40.99	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Clippersavg 60¢	$99.12	$90.03	-$9.09	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 40¢	$66.08	$75.17	+$9.09	38% 1462-2368 (3830)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Hornetsavg 54.5¢	$131.92	$75.14	-$56.78	50% 714-704 (1418)
TA takeormake<$100	Clippersavg 20.6¢	$21.77	$70.55	+$48.78	57% 3727-2840 (6567)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Clippersavg 13¢	$17.03	$50.28	+$36.66	48% 2668-2892 (5560)
PA Pan9XCTR	Hornetsavg 87¢	$188.72	$42.24	-$19.81	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
38 38791873984189CTR	Hornetsavg 81.5¢	$197.21	$38.36	-$21.04	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Hornetsavg 87¢	$51.52	$30.9	-$20.61	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 34.9¢	$28.38	$25.44	-$2.94	38% 1433-2333 (3766)
MI micky456<$100	Clippersavg 14¢	$30.24	$3.24	-$27	48% 654-715 (1369)

NotJump

Clippers

Invested

$525

Value

$525

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

RN1CTR

Hornets

Invested

$423.12

Value

$450.18

PnL

+$27.06

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

Flaznorp

Clippers

Invested

$140.93

Value

$179.66

PnL

+$38.72

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

topdogbigboi<$100

Clippers

Invested

$57.63

Value

$98.61

PnL

+$40.99

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Clippers

Invested

$99.12

Value

$90.03

PnL

-$9.09

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

VenusianCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$66.08

Value

$75.17

PnL

+$9.09

Record

38%

1462-2368 (3830)

justaluckydudeCTR

Hornets

Invested

$131.92

Value

$75.14

PnL

-$56.78

Record

50%

714-704 (1418)

takeormake<$100

Clippers

Invested

$21.77

Value

$70.55

PnL

+$48.78

Record

57%

3727-2840 (6567)

ferdinand2<$100

Clippers

Invested

$17.03

Value

$50.28

PnL

+$36.66

Record

48%

2668-2892 (5560)

Pan9XCTR

Hornets

Invested

$188.72

Value

$42.24

PnL

-$19.81

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

38791873984189CTR

Hornets

Invested

$197.21

Value

$38.36

PnL

-$21.04

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$51.52

Value

$30.9

PnL

-$20.61

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

LimousinCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$28.38

Value

$25.44

PnL

-$2.94

Record

38%

1433-2333 (3766)

micky456<$100

Clippers

Invested

$30.24

Value

$3.24

PnL

-$27

Record

48%

654-715 (1369)

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

7 of 14 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Clippers 67%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Hornets) and the top 1000 (7 on Clippers) disagree here.

ctrClippers 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedHornets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Clippers 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.2%

33.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$184.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

284.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.