Spread: Hornets (-4.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (40%) · Clippers at 64¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Hornets37¢Clippers63¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$42.36

Smart Money Entry

68.8¢ → 63.5¢

-8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hornets37%

Clippers64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers4 traders

Total Value$564.47

Total Shares792

Combined PnL+$9.07

Hornets6 traders

Total Value$429.56

Total Shares1,215

Combined PnL+$33.3

Clippers — 40%Hornets — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Clippersavg 71¢	$217.06	$215.54	-$1.53	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
RN1	Clippersavg 71¢	$169.67	$170.86	+$1.19	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
AN Anon455	Clippersavg 64¢	$140.8	$149.6	+$8.8	50% 501-511 (1012)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Hornetsavg 35.1¢	$148.86	$144.92	-$3.94	46% 1242-1436 (2678)
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 35.1¢	$109.11	$100.93	-$8.18
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 61¢	$39.75	$43.98	+$4.24
MI micky456CTR	Hornetsavg 32.5¢	$107.24	$120.44	+$13.2	48% 654-715 (1369)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Hornetsavg 29¢	$88.66	$111.59	+$22.93	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 37¢	$58.6	$55.43	-$3.17	38% 1437-2336 (3773)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Hornetsavg 35¢	$51.55	$47.87	-$3.68	50% 4065-4065 (8130)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Hornetsavg 33.7¢	$48.95	$47.14	-$1.81	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 32¢	$41.26	$47.09	+$5.82	57% 3689-2778 (6467)
PA Pan9X<$100	Clippersavg 63¢	$27.88	$28.48	+$0.6	50% 2219-2233 (4452)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Clippers

Invested

$217.06

Value

$215.54

PnL

-$1.53

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

RN1

Clippers

Invested

$169.67

Value

$170.86

PnL

+$1.19

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

Anon455

Clippers

Invested

$140.8

Value

$149.6

PnL

+$8.8

Record

50%

501-511 (1012)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Hornets

Invested

$148.86

Value

$144.92

PnL

-$3.94

Record

46%

1242-1436 (2678)

Both legs:

Hornets$109.1135.1¢-$8.18

Clippers$39.7561¢+$4.24

micky456CTR

Hornets

Invested

$107.24

Value

$120.44

PnL

+$13.2

Record

48%

654-715 (1369)

FlaznorpCTR

Hornets

Invested

$88.66

Value

$111.59

PnL

+$22.93

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$58.6

Value

$55.43

PnL

-$3.17

Record

38%

1437-2336 (3773)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$51.55

Value

$47.87

PnL

-$3.68

Record

50%

4065-4065 (8130)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$48.95

Value

$47.14

PnL

-$1.81

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$41.26

Value

$47.09

PnL

+$5.82

Record

57%

3689-2778 (6467)

Pan9X<$100

Clippers

Invested

$27.88

Value

$28.48

PnL

+$0.6

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.