Spread: Hornets (-2.5)

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (47%) · Clippers at 59¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Hornets42¢Clippers58¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 47%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$15.95

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 58.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

7 of 15 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hornets42%

Clippers59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,332

Combined PnL+$14.85

Hornets8 traders

Total Value$419.29

Total Shares999

Combined PnL-$30.79

Clippers — 47%Hornets — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Clippers) and the top 1000 (7 on Hornets) disagree here.

ctrHornets 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedClippers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hornets 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Clippersavg 56.9¢	$897.69	$899.48	+$1.79	56% 3932-3108 (7040)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Clippersavg 50¢	$525	$514.5	-$10.5	50% 1210-1232 (2442)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 50¢	$262.5	$299.25	+$36.75
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 50¢	$262.5	$215.25	-$47.25
RN1	Clippersavg 57.3¢	$245.75	$250.96	+$5.21	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Clippersavg 55¢	$144.71	$154.53	+$9.82	50% 501-511 (1012)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 55¢	$122.43	$123.54	+$1.11
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 32¢	$22.28	$30.99	+$8.71
FL Flaznorp	Clippersavg 52.9¢	$118.19	$124.51	+$6.32	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Hornetsavg 41¢	$100.45	$101.68	+$1.22	49% 2903-2977 (5880)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 47¢	$91.18	$77.6	-$13.58	50% 665-662 (1327)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 44¢	$75.22	$70.09	-$5.13	38% 1414-2288 (3702)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Clippersavg 58.2¢	$62.32	$66.03	+$3.71	56% 4197-3286 (7483)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 58.2¢	$38.87	$39.05	+$0.18
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 36.1¢	$23.45	$26.97	+$3.52
MI micky456CTR<$100	Hornetsavg 45¢	$62.57	$55.6	-$6.97	48% 654-715 (1369)
38 38791873984189<$100	Clippersavg 56¢	$43.59	$39.5	+$0.91	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 44¢	$37.61	$35.05	-$2.56	38% 1426-2282 (3708)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 44¢	$37.61	$35.05	-$2.56	38% 1437-2313 (3750)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 42.1¢	$38.86	$30.27	-$0.19	57% 3689-2778 (6467)
PA Pan9X<$100	Clippersavg 56¢	$20.72	$21.09	+$0.37	50% 2219-2233 (4452)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 44¢	$14.98	$13.96	-$1.02	38% 1437-2336 (3773)
VeryLucky888<$100	Clippersavg 55¢	$6.11	$6.33	+$0.22	54% 2011-1740 (3751)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Clippersavg 58¢	$2.76	$2.79	+$0.02	55% 2010-1678 (3688)

HomeRunHazard

Clippers

Invested

$897.69

Value

$899.48

PnL

+$1.79

Record

56%

3932-3108 (7040)

NotJumpARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$525

Value

$514.5

PnL

-$10.5

Record

50%

1210-1232 (2442)

Both legs:

Clippers$262.550¢+$36.75

Hornets$262.550¢-$47.25

RN1

Clippers

Invested

$245.75

Value

$250.96

PnL

+$5.21

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

Anon455ARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$144.71

Value

$154.53

PnL

+$9.82

Record

50%

501-511 (1012)

Both legs:

Clippers$122.4355¢+$1.11

Hornets$22.2832¢+$8.71

Flaznorp

Clippers

Invested

$118.19

Value

$124.51

PnL

+$6.32

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Hornets

Invested

$100.45

Value

$101.68

PnL

+$1.22

Record

49%

2903-2977 (5880)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$91.18

Value

$77.6

PnL

-$13.58

Record

50%

665-662 (1327)

LimousinCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$75.22

Value

$70.09

PnL

-$5.13

Record

38%

1414-2288 (3702)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$62.32

Value

$66.03

PnL

+$3.71

Record

56%

4197-3286 (7483)

Both legs:

Clippers$38.8758.2¢+$0.18

Hornets$23.4536.1¢+$3.52

micky456CTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$62.57

Value

$55.6

PnL

-$6.97

Record

48%

654-715 (1369)

38791873984189<$100

Clippers

Invested

$43.59

Value

$39.5

PnL

+$0.91

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$37.61

Value

$35.05

PnL

-$2.56

Record

38%

1426-2282 (3708)

VenusianCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$37.61

Value

$35.05

PnL

-$2.56

Record

38%

1437-2313 (3750)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$38.86

Value

$30.27

PnL

-$0.19

Record

57%

3689-2778 (6467)

Pan9X<$100

Clippers

Invested

$20.72

Value

$21.09

PnL

+$0.37

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$14.98

Value

$13.96

PnL

-$1.02

Record

38%

1437-2336 (3773)

VeryLucky888<$100

Clippers

Invested

$6.11

Value

$6.33

PnL

+$0.22

Record

54%

2011-1740 (3751)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Clippers

Invested

$2.76

Value

$2.79

PnL

+$0.02

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

7 of 15 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Clippers) and the top 1000 (7 on Hornets) disagree here.

ctrHornets 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedClippers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hornets 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.