Spread: Hornets (-10.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (50%) · Clippers at 84¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Hornets17¢Clippers83¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 50%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$4.99

Smart Money Entry

83.3¢ → 83.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hornets17%

Clippers84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers5 traders

Total Value$950.03

Total Shares1,145

Combined PnL-$3.11

Hornets5 traders

Total Value$197.42

Total Shares1,193

Combined PnL-$1.88

Clippers — 50%Hornets — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Clippersavg 83.7¢	$465.41	$481.1	+$15.69	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
AN Anon455	Clippersavg 83¢	$472.27	$452.36	-$19.91	50% 501-511 (1012)
MI micky456CTR	Hornetsavg 16.9¢	$100.23	$98.01	-$2.22	48% 654-715 (1369)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 17¢	$73.27	$71.12	-$2.15	57% 3689-2778 (6467)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 14¢	$14	$16.5	+$2.5	58% 4049-2979 (7028)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Hornetsavg 15.9¢	$8.81	$9.13	+$0.32	50% 4065-4065 (8130)
PA Pan9X<$100	Clippersavg 77¢	$10.28	$7.23	+$1.34	50% 2219-2233 (4452)
RN1<$100	Clippersavg 81¢	$5.02	$4.93	-$0.09	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
38 38791873984189<$100	Clippersavg 82¢	$4.56	$4.42	-$0.14	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Hornetsavg 23¢	$2.99	$2.67	-$0.33	44% 350-441 (791)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Clippers

Invested

$465.41

Value

$481.1

PnL

+$15.69

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

Anon455

Clippers

Invested

$472.27

Value

$452.36

PnL

-$19.91

Record

50%

501-511 (1012)

micky456CTR

Hornets

Invested

$100.23

Value

$98.01

PnL

-$2.22

Record

48%

654-715 (1369)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$73.27

Value

$71.12

PnL

-$2.15

Record

57%

3689-2778 (6467)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$14

Value

$16.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

58%

4049-2979 (7028)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$8.81

Value

$9.13

PnL

+$0.32

Record

50%

4065-4065 (8130)

Pan9X<$100

Clippers

Invested

$10.28

Value

$7.23

PnL

+$1.34

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

RN1<$100

Clippers

Invested

$5.02

Value

$4.93

PnL

-$0.09

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

38791873984189<$100

Clippers

Invested

$4.56

Value

$4.42

PnL

-$0.14

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$2.99

Value

$2.67

PnL

-$0.33

Record

44%

350-441 (791)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.