Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Hornets vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 108.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 0.1¢ · $483 held · ended Nov 15

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 80%

Total Value

$482.74

Combined PnL

-$442.17

Smart Money Entry

40.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$303.7

Total Shares304

Combined PnL+$16.86

Over8 traders

Total Value$179.04

Total Shares1,579

Combined PnL-$459.03

Under — 20%Over — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 94¢	$283.56	$299.85	+$16.29	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
PU purplegattoCTR	Overavg 48.4¢	$458.39	$132.68	-$325.71	68% 2691-1276 (3967)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 49¢	$105.35	$30.1	-$75.25	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$50.11	$14.32	-$35.79	49% 136-144 (280)
RN1<$100	Underavg 74¢	$3.27	$3.84	+$0.57	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$4.41	$1.26	-$3.15	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$1.77	$0.53	-$1.25	54% 2045-1764 (3809)
MI micky456CTR<$100	Overavg 6¢	$12	$0.1	-$11.9	48% 654-715 (1369)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 6¢	$6	$0.05	-$5.95	48% 1360-1476 (2836)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 4¢	$0.04	$0	-$0.04	39% 1738-2713 (4451)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$283.56

Value

$299.85

PnL

+$16.29

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

purplegattoCTR

Over

Invested

$458.39

Value

$132.68

PnL

-$325.71

Record

68%

2691-1276 (3967)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$105.35

Value

$30.1

PnL

-$75.25

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$50.11

Value

$14.32

PnL

-$35.79

Record

49%

136-144 (280)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$3.27

Value

$3.84

PnL

+$0.57

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.41

Value

$1.26

PnL

-$3.15

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.77

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$1.25

Record

54%

2045-1764 (3809)

micky456CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$11.9

Record

48%

654-715 (1369)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$5.95

Record

48%

1360-1476 (2836)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.04

Value

PnL

-$0.04

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (9 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.