Hornets vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 106.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 64¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Over36¢Under64¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$67.36

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 64¢

+30% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over36%

Under64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,625

Combined PnL+$278.29

Under7 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares5,267

Combined PnL-$210.93

Over — 42%Under — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegattoCTR	Overavg 50.2¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$165.64	68% 2683-1267 (3950)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Underavg 50.2¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$206.22	59% 535-367 (902)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 51¢	$765.75	$634.11	-$110.83	53% 1989-1729 (3718)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Overavg 49.6¢	$502.97	$582.7	+$79.73	48% 134-144 (278)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 58.9¢	$452.52	$453.14	+$0.62	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Underavg 41¢	$309.02	$429.61	+$120.59	46% 165-193 (358)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Overavg 48.7¢	$145.12	$169.89	+$24.77	18% 63-282 (345)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 50.2¢	$91.08	$76.78	-$14.3	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$50.76	$58.29	+$7.53	44% 349-436 (785)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 46¢	$11.31	$10.57	-$0.74	47% 676-773 (1449)
MI micky456<$100	Underavg 41¢	$1	$1.5	+$0.5	48% 652-715 (1367)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 39¢	$1.28	$1.34	+$0.07	50% 2215-2229 (4444)

purplegattoCTR

Over

Invested

$1,224.02

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$165.64

Record

68%

2683-1267 (3950)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Under

Invested

$1,440.26

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$206.22

Record

59%

535-367 (902)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$765.75

Value

$634.11

PnL

-$110.83

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Over

Invested

$502.97

Value

$582.7

PnL

+$79.73

Record

48%

134-144 (278)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$452.52

Value

$453.14

PnL

+$0.62

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Under

Invested

$309.02

Value

$429.61

PnL

+$120.59

Record

46%

165-193 (358)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Over

Invested

$145.12

Value

$169.89

PnL

+$24.77

Record

18%

63-282 (345)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$91.08

Value

$76.78

PnL

-$14.3

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$50.76

Value

$58.29

PnL

+$7.53

Record

44%

349-436 (785)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$11.31

Value

$10.57

PnL

-$0.74

Record

47%

676-773 (1449)

micky456<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

48%

652-715 (1367)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$1.28

Value

$1.34

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.