Hornets vs. Nets: O/U 212.5

10 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Over (48%) · Over at 90¢ · $90K held · ended Nov 5

Over90¢Under10¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 48%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$90.1K

Combined PnL

$2.5K

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 89.5¢

+70% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 21 top traders (48%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over90%

Under11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over10 traders

Total Value$53.4K

Total Shares90,352

Combined PnL+$4.2K

Under11 traders

Total Value$32.6K

Total Shares67,166

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Over — 48%Under — 52%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+39 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (19 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 56% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 53% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Overavg 52.8¢	$43.2K	$45.8K	+$2.6K	53% 642-565 (1207)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 48.5¢	$30.6K	$29.3K	$-1.4K	54% 18039-15168 (33207)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 57.9¢	$2.5K	$3.0K	+$474.74	50% 4274-4238 (8512)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 44.4¢	$2.0K	$2.8K	+$778.89	51% 24452-23135 (47587)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 57.2¢	$2.6K	$2.3K	-$269.61	56% 7920-6245 (14165)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.2¢	$1.3K	$1.8K	+$489.65
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.9¢	$1.3K	$537.12	-$759.26
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Underavg 47.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$22.02	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.6¢	$848.7	$820.88	-$27.81
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$508.26	$558.09	+$49.83
BI biying99999CTR	Underavg 49.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$95.49	49% 141-146 (287)
AY ay118CTR	Underavg 48.4¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$58.9	43% 45-60 (105)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 50.1¢	$1.0K	$809.67	+$80.38	48% 59434-63450 (122884)
TX txwd9991CTR	Underavg 47¢	$341.9	$334.63	-$7.27	48% 139-153 (292)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 50.7¢	$196.61	$304.56	+$107.95	53% 11880-10404 (22284)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 52¢	$275.15	$287.16	+$12.02	40% 1398-2089 (3487)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$182	$196	+$14
└ Under leg	Underavg 47¢	$93.15	$91.16	-$1.98
RN1CTR	Underavg 47.5¢	$237.5	$230	-$7.5	53% 60181-52537 (112718)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 52¢	$208	$224	+$16	51% 1831-1762 (3593)
TA takeormake	Overavg 47.6¢	$176.16	$216.64	+$40.48	53% 4711-4219 (8930)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 56.2¢	$143.14	$156.87	+$13.72	47% 11225-12583 (23808)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Underavg 45.3¢	$230.1	$116.92	-$113.18	59% 31932-22560 (54492)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 46.8¢	$56.49	$55.49	-$1.01	50% 25577-25281 (50858)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Underavg 34.8¢	$41.13	$54.29	+$12.57	48% 7113-7815 (14928)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Underavg 48.2¢	$55.48	$52.9	-$2.58	49% 3309-3463 (6772)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Overavg 51¢	$41.84	$45.94	+$4.1	64% 1925-1073 (2998)
3C 0x3ca9...424aCTR<$100	Underavg 52.3¢	$62.64	$22.43	+$6.08	—
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$25.56	$15.38	-$6.42	58% 19680-14468 (34148)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 51¢	$4.9	$5.1	+$0.2	52% 8633-7856 (16489)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Over

Invested

$43,198.65

Value

$45.8K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

53%

642-565 (1207)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$30,637.97

Value

$29.3K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

54%

18039-15168 (33207)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$2,542.36

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$474.74

Record

50%

4274-4238 (8512)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$2,017.64

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$778.89

Record

51%

24452-23135 (47587)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,612.34

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$269.61

Record

56%

7920-6245 (14165)

Both legs:

Over$1,315.9657.2¢+$489.65

Under$1,296.3851.9¢-$759.26

HerdoniaARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,356.96

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$22.02

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

Both legs:

Under$848.747.6¢-$27.81

Over$508.2651¢+$49.83

biying99999CTR

Under

Invested

$1,447.89

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$95.49

Record

49%

141-146 (287)

ay118CTR

Under

Invested

$1,201.14

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$58.9

Record

43%

45-60 (105)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$1,016.47

Value

$809.67

PnL

+$80.38

Record

48%

59434-63450 (122884)

txwd9991CTR

Under

Invested

$341.9

Value

$334.63

PnL

-$7.27

Record

48%

139-153 (292)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$196.61

Value

$304.56

PnL

+$107.95

Record

53%

11880-10404 (22284)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$275.15

Value

$287.16

PnL

+$12.02

Record

40%

1398-2089 (3487)

Both legs:

Invested

$237.5

Value

$230

PnL

-$7.5

Record

53%

60181-52537 (112718)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$208

Value

$224

PnL

+$16

Record

51%

1831-1762 (3593)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$176.16

Value

$216.64

PnL

+$40.48

Record

53%

4711-4219 (8930)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$143.14

Value

$156.87

PnL

+$13.72

Record

47%

11225-12583 (23808)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Under

Invested

$230.1

Value

$116.92

PnL

-$113.18

Record

59%

31932-22560 (54492)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$56.49

Value

$55.49

PnL

-$1.01

Record

50%

25577-25281 (50858)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41.13

Value

$54.29

PnL

+$12.57

Record

48%

7113-7815 (14928)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$55.48

Value

$52.9

PnL

-$2.58

Record

49%

3309-3463 (6772)

darkumbreon88<$100

Over

Invested

$41.84

Value

$45.94

PnL

+$4.1

Record

64%

1925-1073 (2998)

0x3ca9...424aCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$62.64

Value

$22.43

PnL

+$6.08

Record

—

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.56

Value

$15.38

PnL

-$6.42

Record

58%

19680-14468 (34148)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$4.9

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0.2

Record

52%

8633-7856 (16489)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 21 top traders (48%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+39 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (19 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 56% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 53% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.