Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 235.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 89¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Over12¢Under88¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$121

Smart Money Entry

76.4¢ → 88.5¢

+16% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over12%

Under89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,198

Combined PnL+$112.7

Over3 traders

Total Value$314.18

Total Shares1,202

Combined PnL+$8.3

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 75.2¢	$775.62	$892.4	+$116.79	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 26¢	$251.68	$256.52	+$4.84	54% 217-188 (405)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 81¢	$57.03	$53.53	-$3.5	48% 947-1017 (1964)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 24¢	$43.02	$45.19	+$2.17	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Underavg 87¢	$40.02	$39.79	-$0.23	62% 2344-1436 (3780)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Underavg 87¢	$34.8	$34.6	-$0.2	65% 175-96 (271)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$11.18	$12.47	+$1.29	56% 488-383 (871)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Underavg 80¢	$8	$7.85	-$0.15	51% 3172-3071 (6243)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$775.62

Value

$892.4

PnL

+$116.79

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$251.68

Value

$256.52

PnL

+$4.84

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$57.03

Value

$53.53

PnL

-$3.5

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$43.02

Value

$45.19

PnL

+$2.17

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Under

Invested

$40.02

Value

$39.79

PnL

-$0.23

Record

62%

2344-1436 (3780)

suitcase6628<$100

Under

Invested

$34.8

Value

$34.6

PnL

-$0.2

Record

65%

175-96 (271)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.18

Value

$12.47

PnL

+$1.29

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

6512395314597884<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$7.85

PnL

-$0.15

Record

51%

3172-3071 (6243)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.