Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 233.5

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (77%) · Under at 81¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Over19¢Under81¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 77%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$29.79

Smart Money Entry

83.1¢ → 81¢

-3% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 13 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over19%

Under81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,506

Combined PnL-$20.69

Over3 traders

Total Value$204.36

Total Shares807

Combined PnL+$50.47

Under — 77%Over — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 15.7¢	$511.55	$813.91	+$302.36	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
└ Over leg	Overavg 15.7¢	$262.5	$576.02	+$313.52
└ Under leg	Underavg 68.6¢	$249.05	$237.89	-$11.16
PU purplegatto	Underavg 84¢	$260.93	$260.93	+$0	69% 2573-1166 (3739)
nigiri99	Underavg 84¢	$225.96	$217.89	-$8.07	52% 128-120 (248)
RN1	Underavg 85.5¢	$207.02	$196.02	-$11	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 16¢	$86.63	$147.42	+$60.79	56% 488-383 (871)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 83¢	$130.43	$128.03	-$2.4	51% 3172-3071 (6243)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Underavg 84¢	$120.96	$117.36	-$3.6	62% 2344-1436 (3780)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 75¢	$100.96	$105.86	+$4.9	48% 947-1017 (1964)
GA Gaditima<$100	Underavg 81¢	$80.39	$81.38	+$0.99	—
dips.<$100	Underavg 84¢	$60.48	$58.68	-$1.8	42% 230-315 (545)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 18.9¢	$64.02	$54.21	-$9.81	28% 278-703 (981)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 84¢	$46.2	$44.55	-$1.65	49% 443-470 (913)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 80.6¢	$35.15	$32.46	+$1.94	54% 383-321 (704)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$3.24	$2.73	-$0.51	28% 278-729 (1007)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$511.55

Value

$813.91

PnL

+$302.36

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

Both legs:

Over$262.515.7¢+$313.52

Under$249.0568.6¢-$11.16

purplegatto

Under

Invested

$260.93

Value

$260.93

PnL

+$0

Record

69%

2573-1166 (3739)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$225.96

Value

$217.89

PnL

-$8.07

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

RN1

Under

Invested

$207.02

Value

$196.02

PnL

-$11

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$86.63

Value

$147.42

PnL

+$60.79

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$130.43

Value

$128.03

PnL

-$2.4

Record

51%

3172-3071 (6243)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Under

Invested

$120.96

Value

$117.36

PnL

-$3.6

Record

62%

2344-1436 (3780)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$100.96

Value

$105.86

PnL

+$4.9

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

Gaditima<$100

Under

Invested

$80.39

Value

$81.38

PnL

+$0.99

Record

—

dips.<$100

Under

Invested

$60.48

Value

$58.68

PnL

-$1.8

Record

42%

230-315 (545)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$64.02

Value

$54.21

PnL

-$9.81

Record

28%

278-703 (981)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$46.2

Value

$44.55

PnL

-$1.65

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$35.15

Value

$32.46

PnL

+$1.94

Record

54%

383-321 (704)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.24

Value

$2.73

PnL

-$0.51

Record

28%

278-729 (1007)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 13 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.