Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 223.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 51¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Over51¢Under49¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$17.38

Smart Money Entry

45.6¢ → 51¢

+12% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$646.33

Total Shares1,320

Combined PnL+$32.46

Under4 traders

Total Value$275.06

Total Shares571

Combined PnL-$15.08

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 59.5¢	$1.0K	$912.76	-$103.64	56% 488-383 (871)
└ Under leg	Underavg 59.5¢	$733.36	$610.41	-$122.95
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.3¢	$283.03	$302.35	+$19.32
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 61.3¢	$800.74	$799.1	-$1.64	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
└ Over leg	Overavg 41.6¢	$374.22	$454.52	+$80.3
└ Under leg	Underavg 61.3¢	$426.52	$344.58	-$81.94
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 55.6¢	$707.11	$723.29	+$31.56	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.6¢	$480.09	$427.65	-$55.63
└ Over leg	Overavg 35.6¢	$208.45	$295.64	+$87.19
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 54.7¢	$603.32	$570.75	-$32.57	51% 3172-3072 (6244)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.7¢	$425.77	$384.97	-$40.8
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.3¢	$177.55	$185.79	+$8.23
TA takeormake	Overavg 46.1¢	$308.61	$337.85	+$29.24	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 55.7¢	$305.55	$261.97	-$22.38	48% 949-1019 (1968)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.7¢	$163.5	$145.32	-$19.26
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.8¢	$119.77	$116.66	-$3.11
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Underavg 71¢	$409.42	$222.01	-$112.3	54% 217-188 (405)
└ Under leg	Underavg 71¢	$183.89	$155.4	-$28.49
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$88.26	$66.61	-$83.81
VE Venusian	Overavg 43¢	$133.48	$159.87	+$26.39	28% 279-730 (1009)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 50¢	$133.5	$132.17	-$1.34	28% 275-716 (991)
BI biying88888ARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$189.12	$127.36	+$16.64	27% 63-170 (233)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$81.6	$78.4	-$3.2
└ Over leg	Overavg 42¢	$40.32	$48.96	+$19.84
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 48.9¢	$119.66	$111.43	-$8.22	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Overavg 49.2¢	$64	$66.3	+$2.3	64% 175-97 (272)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 45.2¢	$43.89	$35.41	+$0	49% 444-470 (914)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 47¢	$47	$29.5	-$17.5	53% 5512-4919 (10431)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 61.3¢	$23.2	$19.9	-$3.29	54% 383-322 (705)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 43¢	$25.37	$17.4	-$7.97	62% 2352-1445 (3797)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 62¢	$13.79	$11.56	-$2.22	48% 190-206 (396)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,016.39

Value

$912.76

PnL

-$103.64

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

Both legs:

Under$733.3659.5¢-$122.95

Over$283.0347.3¢+$19.32

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$800.74

Value

$799.1

PnL

-$1.64

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

Both legs:

Over$374.2241.6¢+$80.3

Under$426.5261.3¢-$81.94

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$707.11

Value

$723.29

PnL

+$31.56

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

Both legs:

Under$480.0955.6¢-$55.63

Over$208.4535.6¢+$87.19

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$603.32

Value

$570.75

PnL

-$32.57

Record

51%

3172-3072 (6244)

Both legs:

Under$425.7754.7¢-$40.8

Over$177.5548.3¢+$8.23

takeormake

Over

Invested

$308.61

Value

$337.85

PnL

+$29.24

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$305.55

Value

$261.97

PnL

-$22.38

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

Both legs:

Under$163.555.7¢-$19.26

Over$119.7751.8¢-$3.11

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$409.42

Value

$222.01

PnL

-$112.3

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

Both legs:

Under$183.8971¢-$28.49

Over$88.2653¢-$83.81

Venusian

Over

Invested

$133.48

Value

$159.87

PnL

+$26.39

Record

28%

279-730 (1009)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$133.5

Value

$132.17

PnL

-$1.34

Record

28%

275-716 (991)

biying88888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$189.12

Value

$127.36

PnL

+$16.64

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

Both legs:

Under$81.651¢-$3.2

Over$40.3242¢+$19.84

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$119.66

Value

$111.43

PnL

-$8.22

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

suitcase6628<$100

Over

Invested

$64

Value

$66.3

PnL

+$2.3

Record

64%

175-97 (272)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$43.89

Value

$35.41

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$47

Value

$29.5

PnL

-$17.5

Record

53%

5512-4919 (10431)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.2

Value

$19.9

PnL

-$3.29

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

$25.37

Value

$17.4

PnL

-$7.97

Record

62%

2352-1445 (3797)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.79

Value

$11.56

PnL

-$2.22

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.