Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 197.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (64%) · Over at 95¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Over95¢Under5¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$0.59

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 95.4¢

+9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over95%

Under5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,833

Combined PnL-$3.55

Under4 traders

Total Value$45.93

Total Shares462

Combined PnL+$4.14

Over — 64%Under — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Over 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 87.7¢	$1.1K	$876.19	-$12.98	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 86.3¢	$718.95	$485.48	+$19.98	48% 947-1017 (1964)
FO forecastication4ARB<$100	Overavg 87¢	$422.74	$457.76	+$35.02	11% 24-189 (213)
└ Over leg	Overavg 87¢	$262.74	$265.76	+$3.02
└ Under leg	Underavg 10¢	$160	$192	+$32
RN1	Overavg 95¢	$217.87	$201.07	-$16.8	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
DA darkumbreon88	Overavg 87¢	$149.81	$151.54	+$1.72	61% 900-577 (1477)
GA Gaditima<$100	Overavg 86¢	$90.83	$92.95	+$2.11	—
PA Pan9X	Overavg 86.3¢	$107.91	$92.4	+$2.09	49% 443-470 (913)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$17.43	$20.62	+$3.19	62% 2344-1436 (3780)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 86.4¢	$17.55	$16.69	+$0.32	54% 383-321 (704)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 9.1¢	$12.99	$13.59	+$0.6	51% 3172-3071 (6243)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$6.3	$7.25	+$0.95	56% 488-383 (871)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$5.07	$4.49	-$0.59	65% 175-96 (271)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$1,060.74

Value

$876.19

PnL

-$12.98

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$718.95

Value

$485.48

PnL

+$19.98

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

forecastication4ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$422.74

Value

$457.76

PnL

+$35.02

Record

11%

24-189 (213)

Both legs:

Invested

$217.87

Value

$201.07

PnL

-$16.8

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

darkumbreon88

Over

Invested

$149.81

Value

$151.54

PnL

+$1.72

Record

61%

900-577 (1477)

Gaditima<$100

Over

Invested

$90.83

Value

$92.95

PnL

+$2.11

Record

—

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$107.91

Value

$92.4

PnL

+$2.09

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.43

Value

$20.62

PnL

+$3.19

Record

62%

2344-1436 (3780)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$17.55

Value

$16.69

PnL

+$0.32

Record

54%

383-321 (704)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.99

Value

$13.59

PnL

+$0.6

Record

51%

3172-3071 (6243)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.3

Value

$7.25

PnL

+$0.95

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.07

Value

$4.49

PnL

-$0.59

Record

65%

175-96 (271)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Over 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.6%

95.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.