Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bucks, while the market favors Celtics (91%). 10 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Celtics (-10.5)

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (63%) · Bucks at 9.0¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 9

Celtics91¢Bucks9¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bucks

Consensus Traders

Bucks 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

43¢ → 9¢

-79% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

10 of 16 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 91%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics91%

Bucks9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics6 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares8,391

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Bucks10 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares12,741

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Celtics — 38%Bucks — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
saintaphextwin	Celticsavg 60.1¢	$3.3K	$4.5K	+$1.1K	38% 435-721 (1156)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Bucksavg 40.6¢	$2.1K	$1.2K	-$832.42	46% 2028-2381 (4409)
RN1	Celticsavg 62.7¢	$867.39	$920.79	+$53.4	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Bucksavg 50¢	$1.9K	$873.77	$-1.0K	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Bucksavg 47¢	$838.1	$666.78	-$171.32	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Celticsavg 79.2¢	$665.85	$573.68	-$92.17	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Celticsavg 88¢	$402.16	$413.59	+$11.43	53% 3778-3377 (7155)
nigiri99	Celticsavg 59.6¢	$375.68	$374.85	-$0.83	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
GC GC-PCTR	Bucksavg 39.7¢	$370	$368.12	-$1.88	57% 22246-16603 (38849)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Bucksavg 37.8¢	$336.2	$309.1	-$27.11	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 53¢	$123.7	$179.72	+$56.02
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 37.8¢	$212.5	$129.38	-$83.13
NM NM-PCTR	Bucksavg 39¢	$195	$197.5	+$2.5	58% 22573-16672 (39245)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Bucksavg 39¢	$72.2	$125.89	+$53.69	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Bucksavg 53.1¢	$120.02	$99.33	-$20.69	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 53.1¢	$82.24	$61.23	-$21.01
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 60¢	$37.78	$38.1	+$0.32
FL FlaznorpCTR	Bucksavg 31.6¢	$315.64	$94.82	-$220.82	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Bucksavg 40¢	$133.6	$76.82	-$56.78	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
PA Pan9X<$100	Celticsavg 67.6¢	$63.96	$63.03	+$0.27	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Bucksavg 40¢	$30.59	$30.96	+$0.37	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Bucksavg 41¢	$5	$2.03	-$0.03	52% 9525-8636 (18161)

saintaphextwin

Celtics

Invested

$3,339.8

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

38%

435-721 (1156)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Bucks

Invested

$2,054.24

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$832.42

Record

46%

2028-2381 (4409)

RN1

Celtics

Invested

$867.39

Value

$920.79

PnL

+$53.4

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Bucks

Invested

$1,899.5

Value

$873.77

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

6512395314597884CTR

Bucks

Invested

$838.1

Value

$666.78

PnL

-$171.32

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Celtics

Invested

$665.85

Value

$573.68

PnL

-$92.17

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Celtics

Invested

$402.16

Value

$413.59

PnL

+$11.43

Record

53%

3778-3377 (7155)

nigiri99

Celtics

Invested

$375.68

Value

$374.85

PnL

-$0.83

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

GC-PCTR

Bucks

Invested

$370

Value

$368.12

PnL

-$1.88

Record

57%

22246-16603 (38849)

Anon455ARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$336.2

Value

$309.1

PnL

-$27.11

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

Both legs:

Celtics$123.753¢+$56.02

Bucks$212.537.8¢-$83.13

NM-PCTR

Bucks

Invested

$195

Value

$197.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

58%

22573-16672 (39245)

SnakeBallCTR

Bucks

Invested

$72.2

Value

$125.89

PnL

+$53.69

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$120.02

Value

$99.33

PnL

-$20.69

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

Both legs:

Bucks$82.2453.1¢-$21.01

Celtics$37.7860¢+$0.32

FlaznorpCTR

Bucks

Invested

$315.64

Value

$94.82

PnL

-$220.82

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

MadridTimeCTR

Bucks

Invested

$133.6

Value

$76.82

PnL

-$56.78

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

Pan9X<$100

Celtics

Invested

$63.96

Value

$63.03

PnL

+$0.27

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$30.59

Value

$30.96

PnL

+$0.37

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

Value

$2.03

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

9525-8636 (18161)

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

10 of 16 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 91%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bucks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance10.4%

9.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$856.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

956.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.