Nets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 221.5

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 58¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Over58¢Under42¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$35.38

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 58¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over58%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$554.28

Total Shares936

Combined PnL+$48.92

Under8 traders

Total Value$499.93

Total Shares1,181

Combined PnL-$13.53

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 54.3¢	$300.11	$328.62	+$28.51	55% 1734-1418 (3152)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 53¢	$176.97	$195.33	+$18.36	38% 1276-2064 (3340)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 47¢	$169.76	$153.66	-$16.1	37% 1136-1917 (3053)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 43.1¢	$137.04	$139.8	+$2.76	37% 1136-1943 (3079)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$91.85	$87.41	-$4.44	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR<$100	Underavg 44.9¢	$55.28	$51.14	-$4.13	50% 131-131 (262)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$39	$44	+$5	34% 169-323 (492)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 55¢	$31.3	$24.12	+$2.52	53% 2030-1802 (3832)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$12.8	$14.4	+$1.6	38% 1162-1897 (3059)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$5.95	$7.27	+$1.32	36% 563-1018 (1581)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 61¢	$6.69	$6.21	-$0.47	47% 1052-1201 (2253)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$1.8	$2.25	+$0.45	70% 1725-752 (2477)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$300.11

Value

$328.62

PnL

+$28.51

Record

55%

1734-1418 (3152)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$176.97

Value

$195.33

PnL

+$18.36

Record

38%

1276-2064 (3340)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$169.76

Value

$153.66

PnL

-$16.1

Record

37%

1136-1917 (3053)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$137.04

Value

$139.8

PnL

+$2.76

Record

37%

1136-1943 (3079)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$91.85

Value

$87.41

PnL

-$4.44

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$55.28

Value

$51.14

PnL

-$4.13

Record

50%

131-131 (262)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$39

Value

$44

PnL

+$5

Record

34%

169-323 (492)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$31.3

Value

$24.12

PnL

+$2.52

Record

53%

2030-1802 (3832)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.8

Value

$14.4

PnL

+$1.6

Record

38%

1162-1897 (3059)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.95

Value

$7.27

PnL

+$1.32

Record

36%

563-1018 (1581)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$6.69

Value

$6.21

PnL

-$0.47

Record

47%

1052-1201 (2253)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.8

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.45

Record

70%

1725-752 (2477)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.