Spread: Grizzlies (-7.5)

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (62%) · Grizzlies at 70¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Grizzlies70¢Nets30¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 62%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$174.35

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 70¢

+36% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies70%

Nets30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Grizzlies8 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,931

Combined PnL+$427.22

Nets5 traders

Total Value$713.84

Total Shares2,689

Combined PnL-$601.57

Grizzlies — 62%Nets — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGrizzlies 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Grizzlies 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Grizzliesavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$305.15	51% 528-501 (1029)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Netsavg 49¢	$930.76	$493.87	-$436.89	50% 2685-2651 (5336)
NO NotJump	Grizzliesavg 50¢	$250	$330	+$80	51% 970-935 (1905)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Grizzliesavg 55¢	$133.98	$160.78	+$26.8	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Netsavg 50¢	$257.12	$133.7	-$123.42	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Grizzliesavg 64.7¢	$38.28	$39.82	+$1.55	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Grizzliesavg 66¢	$32.34	$36.26	+$3.92	49% 588-623 (1211)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Netsavg 36.3¢	$41.98	$36.16	-$0.07	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Netsavg 49¢	$66.07	$35.06	-$31.01	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
38 38791873984189<$100	Grizzliesavg 35¢	$8.62	$16.25	+$7.63	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Grizzliesavg 57¢	$13.26	$15.35	+$2.09	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Netsavg 57¢	$25.24	$15.05	-$10.18	56% 3778-2937 (6715)
MI micky456<$100	Grizzliesavg 66¢	$0.66	$0.74	+$0.08	47% 590-656 (1246)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,037.51

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$305.15

Record

51%

528-501 (1029)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Nets

Invested

$930.76

Value

$493.87

PnL

-$436.89

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

NotJump

Grizzlies

Invested

$250

Value

$330

PnL

+$80

Record

51%

970-935 (1905)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Grizzlies

Invested

$133.98

Value

$160.78

PnL

+$26.8

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

MadridTimeCTR

Nets

Invested

$257.12

Value

$133.7

PnL

-$123.42

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

Flaznorp<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$38.28

Value

$39.82

PnL

+$1.55

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

justaluckydude<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$32.34

Value

$36.26

PnL

+$3.92

Record

49%

588-623 (1211)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$41.98

Value

$36.16

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

VenusianCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$66.07

Value

$35.06

PnL

-$31.01

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

38791873984189<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$8.62

Value

$16.25

PnL

+$7.63

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

topdogbigboi<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$13.26

Value

$15.35

PnL

+$2.09

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$25.24

Value

$15.05

PnL

-$10.18

Record

56%

3778-2937 (6715)

micky456<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$0.66

Value

$0.74

PnL

+$0.08

Record

47%

590-656 (1246)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGrizzlies 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Grizzlies 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.