Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Grizzlies (67%) · Grizzlies at 57¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Grizzlies57¢Nets43¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Grizzlies

Consensus Traders

Grizzlies 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$104.59

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 57.5¢

+14% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Grizzlies57%

Nets43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nets3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,882

Combined PnL-$67.89

Grizzlies6 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares5,830

Combined PnL-$36.7

Nets — 33%Grizzlies — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNets 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Grizzlies 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Netsavg 46.3¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$76.39	50% 2685-2651 (5336)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Grizzliesavg 50.9¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$109.24	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
MaoZeDonK	Grizzliesavg 55.8¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$3.13	55% 41-33 (74)
FL Flaznorp	Grizzliesavg 47.3¢	$427.75	$411.83	-$15.92	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Netsavg 45¢	$265.63	$278.44	+$12.81	51% 970-935 (1905)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 45¢	$140.63	$142.19	+$1.56
└ Grizzlies leg	Grizzliesavg 50¢	$125	$136.25	+$11.25
JU justaluckydude	Grizzliesavg 48¢	$180	$191.25	+$11.25	49% 588-623 (1211)
LI Limousin	Grizzliesavg 23¢	$62.56	$136	+$73.44	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Netsavg 43¢	$66.07	$76.83	+$10.76	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Netsavg 49¢	$20.09	$17.84	-$2.25	43% 216-282 (498)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Grizzliesavg 48¢	$10.3	$10.94	+$0.64	48% 2325-2529 (4854)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Nets

Invested

$1,245.58

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$76.39

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,256.58

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$109.24

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

MaoZeDonK

Grizzlies

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$3.13

Record

55%

41-33 (74)

Flaznorp

Grizzlies

Invested

$427.75

Value

$411.83

PnL

-$15.92

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

NotJumpARB<$100

Nets

Invested

$265.63

Value

$278.44

PnL

+$12.81

Record

51%

970-935 (1905)

Both legs:

Nets$140.6345¢+$1.56

Grizzlies$12550¢+$11.25

justaluckydude

Grizzlies

Invested

$180

Value

$191.25

PnL

+$11.25

Record

49%

588-623 (1211)

Limousin

Grizzlies

Invested

$62.56

Value

$136

PnL

+$73.44

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

VenusianCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$66.07

Value

$76.83

PnL

+$10.76

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$20.09

Value

$17.84

PnL

-$2.25

Record

43%

216-282 (498)

ferdinand2<$100

Grizzlies

Invested

$10.3

Value

$10.94

PnL

+$0.64

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

Research grade

AvoidGrizzlies at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Grizzlies

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Grizzlies. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNets 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Grizzlies 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Grizzlies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.