Spread: Hawks (-4.5)

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (62%) · Hawks at 90¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 5

Hawks90¢Wizards10¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 62%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$196.8

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 90¢

+67% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

8 of 13 top traders (62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hawks90%

Wizards10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks8 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,951

Combined PnL+$295.2

Wizards5 traders

Total Value$361.85

Total Shares772

Combined PnL-$98.4

Hawks — 62%Wizards — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Wizardsavg 60.8¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$395.12	54% 18039-15168 (33207)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 60.8¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$476.99
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 41.2¢	$200.91	$282.77	+$81.86
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Hawksavg 49¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$149.99	51% 24276-22998 (47274)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 49¢	$606.76	$1.0K	+$396.11
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 34.6¢	$545.17	$299.05	-$246.12
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Hawksavg 64.7¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$20.46	56% 7896-6221 (14117)
SU SunlineTicker	Hawksavg 40¢	$354.8	$381.41	+$26.61	60% 4423-2917 (7340)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Wizardsavg 59.5¢	$370.57	$370.69	+$0.12	40% 1349-2039 (3388)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 59.5¢	$197.55	$189.23	-$8.32
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 41¢	$173.02	$181.46	+$8.44
TA takeormake	Hawksavg 68.8¢	$257.32	$303.78	+$46.46	53% 4711-4218 (8929)
38 38791873984189	Hawksavg 40¢	$122	$254.67	+$132.67	48% 59342-63357 (122699)
nigiri99CTR	Wizardsavg 58.2¢	$288.24	$215.33	-$72.92	46% 8412-9883 (18295)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Hawksavg 47.3¢	$83.32	$148.98	+$65.67	46% 1408-1663 (3071)
RN1CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 55¢	$92.2	$73.1	-$19.11	53% 60086-52456 (112542)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 40.2¢	$41.5	$36.71	-$4.8	53% 11880-10404 (22284)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Hawksavg 39¢	$12.79	$27.05	+$7.7	50% 4274-4238 (8512)
PA Pan9X<$100	Hawksavg 61¢	$27.45	$23.4	-$4.05	—
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 58¢	$36.36	$18.59	-$0.93	58% 45483-32930 (78413)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 58¢	$18.78	$18.13	-$0.65	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Hawksavg 60.2¢	$4.21	$3.89	-$0.33	61% 2386-1515 (3901)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$1,744.81

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$395.12

Record

54%

18039-15168 (33207)

Both legs:

Wizards$1,543.960.8¢-$476.99

Hawks$200.9141.2¢+$81.86

FlaznorpARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$1,151.93

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$149.99

Record

51%

24276-22998 (47274)

Both legs:

Hawks$606.7649¢+$396.11

Wizards$545.1734.6¢-$246.12

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Hawks

Invested

$1,043.7

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$20.46

Record

56%

7896-6221 (14117)

SunlineTicker

Hawks

Invested

$354.8

Value

$381.41

PnL

+$26.61

Record

60%

4423-2917 (7340)

NM-PARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$370.57

Value

$370.69

PnL

+$0.12

Record

40%

1349-2039 (3388)

Both legs:

Wizards$197.5559.5¢-$8.32

Hawks$173.0241¢+$8.44

takeormake

Hawks

Invested

$257.32

Value

$303.78

PnL

+$46.46

Record

53%

4711-4218 (8929)

38791873984189

Hawks

Invested

$122

Value

$254.67

PnL

+$132.67

Record

48%

59342-63357 (122699)

nigiri99CTR

Wizards

Invested

$288.24

Value

$215.33

PnL

-$72.92

Record

46%

8412-9883 (18295)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Hawks

Invested

$83.32

Value

$148.98

PnL

+$65.67

Record

46%

1408-1663 (3071)

RN1CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$92.2

Value

$73.1

PnL

-$19.11

Record

53%

60086-52456 (112542)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$41.5

Value

$36.71

PnL

-$4.8

Record

53%

11880-10404 (22284)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Hawks

Invested

$12.79

Value

$27.05

PnL

+$7.7

Record

50%

4274-4238 (8512)

Pan9X<$100

Hawks

Invested

$27.45

Value

$23.4

PnL

-$4.05

Record

—

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$36.36

Value

$18.59

PnL

-$0.93

Record

58%

45483-32930 (78413)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$18.78

Value

$18.13

PnL

-$0.65

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Hawks

Invested

$4.21

Value

$3.89

PnL

-$0.33

Record

61%

2386-1515 (3901)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

8 of 13 top traders (62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.