Spread: Hawks (-2.5)

11 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (61%) · Hawks at 59¢ · $64K held · ended Nov 5

Hawks59¢Wizards41¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 61%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$64.3K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 58.5¢

+16% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

11 of 18 top traders (61%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hawks59%

Wizards42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks11 traders

Total Value$37.2K

Total Shares69,645

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Wizards7 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares19,154

Combined PnL-$842.92

Hawks — 61%Wizards — 39%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHawks 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpHawks 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrWizards 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedHawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hawks 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Hawksavg 49.8¢	$22.6K	$24.0K	+$1.4K	48% 303-327 (630)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Wizardsavg 51.7¢	$16.3K	$15.7K	-$608.99	54% 18039-15168 (33207)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 51.7¢	$9.6K	$8.7K	-$864.32
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 51.1¢	$6.8K	$7.0K	+$255.33
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Wizardsavg 50.2¢	$4.2K	$3.9K	-$267.94	50% 20775-21016 (41791)
FO forget4	Hawksavg 52¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$60	44% 695-899 (1594)
MA MAGATheeStallion	Hawksavg 51.2¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$45	58% 276-201 (477)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Wizardsavg 55.2¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$308.53	52% 5948-5557 (11505)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Hawksavg 58.2¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$7.41	46% 1408-1663 (3071)
HE Herdonia	Hawksavg 51.1¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$46.16	51% 3584-3513 (7097)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Wizardsavg 51.2¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$132.11	60% 4423-2917 (7340)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Wizardsavg 51.7¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$55	40% 1349-2039 (3388)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 51.7¢	$775	$705	-$70
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 51.5¢	$515	$530	+$15
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Hawksavg 52.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$54.43	51% 24276-22998 (47274)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 52.8¢	$784.34	$921.51	+$137.17
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 50¢	$345.4	$262.66	-$82.74
PL pltrkr111	Hawksavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$60	54% 755-638 (1393)
SE sentrioCTR	Wizardsavg 49.9¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$62.14	50% 25501-25206 (50707)
AP AppleTiiime	Hawksavg 48.9¢	$919.9	$996.88	+$76.97	55% 60-49 (109)
TM TMingchanCTR	Wizardsavg 51¢	$918.58	$846.53	-$72.05	60% 15-10 (25)
RN1	Hawksavg 51.2¢	$700.28	$724.34	+$24.06	53% 60086-52456 (112542)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Hawksavg 46¢	$1.7K	$638.85	+$434.75	50% 4274-4238 (8512)
GC GC-P	Hawksavg 51¢	$255	$265	+$10	39% 1347-2116 (3463)
TA takeormake<$100	Hawksavg 66.3¢	$28.62	$37.04	+$8.42	53% 4711-4218 (8929)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 47¢	$26.6	$26.6	+$0	56% 7896-6221 (14117)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Wizardsavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.35	-$0.15	52% 8584-7828 (16412)

Multicoloured-Serf

Hawks

Invested

$22,607.13

Value

$24.0K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

48%

303-327 (630)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$16,344.46

Value

$15.7K

PnL

-$608.99

Record

54%

18039-15168 (33207)

Both legs:

Wizards$9,564.5451.7¢-$864.32

Hawks$6,779.9251.1¢+$255.33

omnibus-076daaCTR

Wizards

Invested

$4,157.87

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$267.94

Record

50%

20775-21016 (41791)

forget4

Hawks

Invested

$3,119.99

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$60

Record

44%

695-899 (1594)

MAGATheeStallion

Hawks

Invested

$3,075

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$45

Record

58%

276-201 (477)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Wizards

Invested

$2,067.95

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$308.53

Record

52%

5948-5557 (11505)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Hawks

Invested

$1,571.51

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$7.41

Record

46%

1408-1663 (3071)

Herdonia

Hawks

Invested

$1,471.32

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$46.16

Record

51%

3584-3513 (7097)

SunlineTickerCTR

Wizards

Invested

$1,605.07

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$132.11

Record

60%

4423-2917 (7340)

NM-PARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$1,290

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$55

Record

40%

1349-2039 (3388)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,129.74

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$54.43

Record

51%

24276-22998 (47274)

Both legs:

Hawks$784.3452.8¢+$137.17

Wizards$345.450¢-$82.74

pltrkr111

Hawks

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$60

Record

54%

755-638 (1393)

sentrioCTR

Wizards

Invested

$1,077.24

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$62.14

Record

50%

25501-25206 (50707)

AppleTiiime

Hawks

Invested

$919.9

Value

$996.88

PnL

+$76.97

Record

55%

60-49 (109)

TMingchanCTR

Wizards

Invested

$918.58

Value

$846.53

PnL

-$72.05

Record

60%

15-10 (25)

RN1

Hawks

Invested

$700.28

Value

$724.34

PnL

+$24.06

Record

53%

60086-52456 (112542)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Hawks

Invested

$1,747.54

Value

$638.85

PnL

+$434.75

Record

50%

4274-4238 (8512)

GC-P

Hawks

Invested

$255

Value

$265

PnL

+$10

Record

39%

1347-2116 (3463)

takeormake<$100

Hawks

Invested

$28.62

Value

$37.04

PnL

+$8.42

Record

53%

4711-4218 (8929)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$26.6

Value

$26.6

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

7896-6221 (14117)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

8584-7828 (16412)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

11 of 18 top traders (61%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHawks 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpHawks 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrWizards 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedHawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hawks 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.