Hawks vs. Bucks: O/U 234.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 54¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 16

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

Total Value

$12.3K

Combined PnL

-$36.43

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 53.5¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares11,890

Combined PnL-$130.49

Under5 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares12,816

Combined PnL+$94.06

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nehcnehcCTR	Overavg 50¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	-$141.81	36% 63-110 (173)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 50¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	+$41.79	48% 720-766 (1486)
MaoZeDonK	Underavg 52¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$49.04	58% 49-36 (85)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 48¢	$980	$990.21	+$10.21	26% 249-694 (943)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 50.2¢	$589.62	$592.85	+$3.23	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 48¢	$120	$121.25	+$1.25	53% 1909-1671 (3580)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$37.86	$37.86	+$0	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 48.6¢	$30.18	$30.09	-$0.09	56% 668-530 (1198)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 51¢	$4.76	$4.71	-$0.05	46% 3282-3819 (7101)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.55	+$0.05	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.45	-$0.05	43% 861-1147 (2008)

nehcnehcCTR

Over

Invested

$4,727

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$141.81

Record

36%

63-110 (173)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$4,179

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$41.79

Record

48%

720-766 (1486)

MaoZeDonK

Under

Invested

$1,700

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$49.04

Record

58%

49-36 (85)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$980

Value

$990.21

PnL

+$10.21

Record

26%

249-694 (943)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$589.62

Value

$592.85

PnL

+$3.23

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$120

Value

$121.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

53%

1909-1671 (3580)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37.86

Value

$37.86

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30.18

Value

$30.09

PnL

-$0.09

Record

56%

668-530 (1198)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.71

PnL

-$0.05

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.05

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.05

Record

43%

861-1147 (2008)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.