Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 250.5

8 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Under (47%) · Under at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 47%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$275.46

Smart Money Entry

76.2¢ → 99.5¢

+31% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 17 top traders (47%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,433

Combined PnL+$171.35

Over9 traders

Total Value$79.16

Total Shares1,923

Combined PnL-$446.8

Under — 47%Over — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO forecastication4	Underavg 58¢	$365.29	$592.02	+$226.73	32% 146-304 (450)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 89.5¢	$538.47	$516.12	-$22.35	54% 1316-1100 (2416)
RN1	Underavg 71.1¢	$559.36	$504.18	+$24.72	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 75.3¢	$424.52	$350.71	-$73.81	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
SU suitcase6628	Underavg 98¢	$294	$298.5	+$4.5	64% 527-296 (823)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 41.5¢	$354.12	$34.15	-$319.97	36% 879-1566 (2445)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 85¢	$33.13	$33.98	+$0.85	37% 819-1385 (2204)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 60¢	$18.6	$28.9	+$10.3	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 3.2¢	$183.33	$19.04	+$20.45	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 41¢	$150.21	$14.66	-$135.54	48% 852-928 (1780)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 2.7¢	$4	$5.25	+$1.25	53% 6885-6020 (12905)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 7¢	$3.85	$4.95	+$1.1	59% 3388-2384 (5772)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 86¢	$4.3	$4.7	+$0.4	49% 1865-1975 (3840)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 38.4¢	$4.47	$0.47	-$4.01	53% 1556-1404 (2960)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 7¢	$3.85	$0.28	-$3.58	47% 860-963 (1823)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$1.95	$0.2	-$1.75	36% 910-1584 (2494)
balthazarCTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$4.92	$0.16	-$4.76	44% 5031-6456 (11487)

forecastication4

Under

Invested

$365.29

Value

$592.02

PnL

+$226.73

Record

32%

146-304 (450)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$538.47

Value

$516.12

PnL

-$22.35

Record

54%

1316-1100 (2416)

RN1

Under

Invested

$559.36

Value

$504.18

PnL

+$24.72

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$424.52

Value

$350.71

PnL

-$73.81

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

suitcase6628

Under

Invested

$294

Value

$298.5

PnL

+$4.5

Record

64%

527-296 (823)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$354.12

Value

$34.15

PnL

-$319.97

Record

36%

879-1566 (2445)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$33.13

Value

$33.98

PnL

+$0.85

Record

37%

819-1385 (2204)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$18.6

Value

$28.9

PnL

+$10.3

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$183.33

Value

$19.04

PnL

+$20.45

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$150.21

Value

$14.66

PnL

-$135.54

Record

48%

852-928 (1780)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

53%

6885-6020 (12905)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.85

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$1.1

Record

59%

3388-2384 (5772)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$4.3

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$0.4

Record

49%

1865-1975 (3840)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.47

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$4.01

Record

53%

1556-1404 (2960)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.85

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$3.58

Record

47%

860-963 (1823)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.95

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$1.75

Record

36%

910-1584 (2494)

balthazarCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.92

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$4.76

Record

44%

5031-6456 (11487)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 17 top traders (47%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.