Spread: Hawks (-3.5)

12 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (55%) · Bulls at 100¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 14

Hawks<1¢Bulls>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.3K

Combined PnL

$4.0K

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 99.6¢

+106% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

12 of 22 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hawks0%

Bulls100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls12 traders

Total Value$13.2K

Total Shares14,526

Combined PnL+$6.0K

Hawks10 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares12,171

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Bulls — 55%Hawks — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBulls 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHawks 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 60% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AP AppleTiiime	Bullsavg 48¢	$4.7K	$9.8K	+$5.1K	50% 96-95 (191)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Hawksavg 51.9¢	$4.9K	$3.8K	$-1.1K	51% 2364-2297 (4661)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Bullsavg 70.8¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$284.15	50% 358-364 (722)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 70.8¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$20.6
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 50.1¢	$690.35	$385.6	-$304.75
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Bullsavg 54.8¢	$931.1	$1.1K	+$181.35	54% 1316-1100 (2416)
FL Flaznorp	Bullsavg 43.9¢	$562.68	$955.62	+$392.94	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
RN1ARB<$100	Hawksavg 52.3¢	$903.17	$718.19	-$184.97	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 52.3¢	$678.66	$505.81	-$172.84
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 64.5¢	$224.51	$212.38	-$12.13
HO HomeRunHazard	Bullsavg 38.1¢	$333.14	$533.46	+$200.32	57% 3567-2709 (6276)
65 6512395314597884	Bullsavg 57.6¢	$247.8	$423.54	+$175.75	50% 3678-3623 (7301)
NA NatoAlfista	Bullsavg 49.3¢	$119.38	$180.29	+$60.91	40% 144-212 (356)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Bullsavg 66.1¢	$41.85	$62.36	+$20.51	44% 418-527 (945)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Bullsavg 47¢	$15.51	$32.85	+$17.34	49% 1865-1975 (3840)
38 38791873984189	Bullsavg 83.4¢	$401.8	$29.5	-$98.03	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
PA Pan9X	Bullsavg 82¢	$140.39	$23.07	-$24.7	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Hawksavg 52¢	$15.6	$16.35	+$0.75	64% 527-296 (823)
SU suntori<$100	Bullsavg 83¢	$12.11	$12.04	-$0.07	46% 2333-2789 (5122)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Hawksavg 34¢	$14.96	$11.88	-$3.08	45% 706-873 (1579)
MI micky456<$100	Bullsavg 56.9¢	$9.48	$10.16	+$0.67	47% 469-528 (997)
TA takeormakeCTR	Hawksavg 23.1¢	$387.07	$7.54	-$379.53	58% 3427-2519 (5946)
dips.CTR<$100	Hawksavg 52¢	$7.07	$7.41	+$0.34	47% 860-963 (1823)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Hawksavg 39¢	$401.31	$4.63	-$396.68	11% 55-453 (508)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Hawksavg 51¢	$10.72	$3.99	-$6.73	45% 441-538 (979)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Hawksavg 61¢	$2.78	$1.78	-$1	48% 852-928 (1780)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Hawksavg 27¢	$1.7	$1.7	+$0	53% 1556-1404 (2960)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR<$100	Hawksavg 40¢	$39.76	$0.45	-$39.31	49% 516-536 (1052)

AppleTiiime

Bulls

Invested

$4,713.3

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$5.1K

Record

50%

96-95 (191)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Hawks

Invested

$4,928.5

Value

$3.8K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

51%

2364-2297 (4661)

Anon455ARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$1,926.15

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$284.15

Record

50%

358-364 (722)

Both legs:

Bulls$1,235.870.8¢+$20.6

Hawks$690.3550.1¢-$304.75

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Bulls

Invested

$931.1

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$181.35

Record

54%

1316-1100 (2416)

Flaznorp

Bulls

Invested

$562.68

Value

$955.62

PnL

+$392.94

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

RN1ARB<$100

Hawks

Invested

$903.17

Value

$718.19

PnL

-$184.97

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

Both legs:

Hawks$678.6652.3¢-$172.84

Bulls$224.5164.5¢-$12.13

HomeRunHazard

Bulls

Invested

$333.14

Value

$533.46

PnL

+$200.32

Record

57%

3567-2709 (6276)

6512395314597884

Bulls

Invested

$247.8

Value

$423.54

PnL

+$175.75

Record

50%

3678-3623 (7301)

NatoAlfista

Bulls

Invested

$119.38

Value

$180.29

PnL

+$60.91

Record

40%

144-212 (356)

justaluckydude<$100

Bulls

Invested

$41.85

Value

$62.36

PnL

+$20.51

Record

44%

418-527 (945)

ferdinand2<$100

Bulls

Invested

$15.51

Value

$32.85

PnL

+$17.34

Record

49%

1865-1975 (3840)

38791873984189

Bulls

Invested

$401.8

Value

$29.5

PnL

-$98.03

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

Pan9X

Bulls

Invested

$140.39

Value

$23.07

PnL

-$24.7

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$15.6

Value

$16.35

PnL

+$0.75

Record

64%

527-296 (823)

suntori<$100

Bulls

Invested

$12.11

Value

$12.04

PnL

-$0.07

Record

46%

2333-2789 (5122)

lryyyCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$14.96

Value

$11.88

PnL

-$3.08

Record

45%

706-873 (1579)

micky456<$100

Bulls

Invested

$9.48

Value

$10.16

PnL

+$0.67

Record

47%

469-528 (997)

takeormakeCTR

Hawks

Invested

$387.07

Value

$7.54

PnL

-$379.53

Record

58%

3427-2519 (5946)

dips.CTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$7.07

Value

$7.41

PnL

+$0.34

Record

47%

860-963 (1823)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Hawks

Invested

$401.31

Value

$4.63

PnL

-$396.68

Record

11%

55-453 (508)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$10.72

Value

$3.99

PnL

-$6.73

Record

45%

441-538 (979)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$2.78

Value

$1.78

PnL

-$1

Record

48%

852-928 (1780)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.7

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1556-1404 (2960)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$39.76

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$39.31

Record

49%

516-536 (1052)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

12 of 22 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBulls 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHawks 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 60% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.