LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS - Game 2 Winner
63 of 96 top Polymarket traders hold Team Liquid (66%) · Team Liquid at 100¢ · $1.2M held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Team Liquid
96
Team Liquid 66%
5 arb excluded
$1.2M
$28.1K
86.4¢ → 100¢
+16% since entry · 63 traders
Research grade
NeutralTeam Liquid at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
63 of 96 top traders (66%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed33 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZX zxc368 | Team Liquidavg 99.9¢ | $363.9K | $364.1K | +$213.55 | 98% 12945-204 (13149) |
LA landighertz | Team Liquidavg 99.9¢ | $134.9K | $134.9K | +$67.5 | 99% 1141-4 (1145) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | Team Liquidavg 71.9¢ | $118.3K | $122.3K | +$4.0K | 53% 2383-2087 (4470) |
JA jakepaulthegoat2008 | Team Liquidavg 81¢ | $61.6K | $75.7K | +$14.1K | 50% 7309-7439 (14748) |
 c4acap | Team Liquidavg 99.9¢ | $75.5K | $75.5K | +$37.77 | 98% 2413-40 (2453) |
JA Ja888 | Team Liquidavg 89.5¢ | $37.3K | $39.0K | +$2.7K | 70% 49-21 (70) |
PN pnhct | Team Liquidavg 77.1¢ | $39.7K | $38.1K | $-1.6K | 54% 505-434 (939) |
AN Anon455 | Team Liquidavg 62.8¢ | $30.9K | $32.9K | +$1.9K | 56% 2860-2290 (5150) |
FK fkALARB<$100 | Team Liquidavg 65.5¢ | $26.0K | $25.7K | -$363.93 | 63% 2030-1199 (3229) |
| └ Team Liquid leg | Team Liquidavg 65.5¢ | $14.6K | $16.1K | +$1.6K | |
| └ LOS leg | LOSavg 33¢ | $11.5K | $9.6K | $-1.9K | |
AN AnonymousPerson | Team Liquidavg 99.7¢ | $23.3K | $23.4K | +$56.69 | 95% 2235-116 (2351) |
YO yong32 | Team Liquidavg 70¢ | $17.0K | $19.8K | +$2.7K | 69% 44-20 (64) |
 JustADonk | Team Liquidavg 76.2¢ | $14.8K | $17.6K | +$2.8K | 55% 892-736 (1628) |
 3648393489047 | Team Liquidavg 70.5¢ | $14.2K | $14.4K | +$202.01 | 61% 1119-707 (1826) |
CA caishenbaoyoufadacai888 | Team Liquidavg 67.1¢ | $9.7K | $14.2K | +$4.5K | 57% 659-504 (1163) |
 Anjun | Team Liquidavg 67¢ | $10.4K | $13.0K | +$2.6K | 55% 4903-3963 (8866) |
TA takeormake | Team Liquidavg 87.1¢ | $14.9K | $12.6K | $-2.3K | 53% 4002-3482 (7484) |
 0xheavy888ARB<$100 | Team Liquidavg 78.5¢ | $14.1K | $12.6K | $-1.5K | 56% 7065-5663 (12728) |
| └ Team Liquid leg | Team Liquidavg 78.5¢ | $7.8K | $8.8K | +$1.0K | |
| └ LOS leg | LOSavg 19.1¢ | $6.3K | $3.8K | $-2.5K | |
 DamwonChampions2026 | Team Liquidavg 77.8¢ | $14.8K | $11.7K | $-3.1K | 53% 2059-1823 (3882) |
TH THEHIGHLIFE | Team Liquidavg 58¢ | $11.6K | $11.7K | +$100 | 54% 2476-2130 (4606) |
 minjiARB<$100 | LOSavg 20.3¢ | $12.6K | $10.8K | $-1.8K | 52% 1791-1648 (3439) |
| └ Team Liquid leg | Team Liquidavg 75.5¢ | $6.1K | $7.2K | +$1.0K | |
| └ LOS leg | LOSavg 20.3¢ | $6.5K | $3.7K | $-2.8K | |
0X 0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616 | Team Liquidavg 65.4¢ | $6.9K | $10.5K | +$3.6K | 49% 1157-1208 (2365) |
47 473game | Team Liquidavg 74.9¢ | $9.8K | $10.0K | +$208.58 | 32% 355-739 (1094) |
 relativesignificance | Team Liquidavg 66.1¢ | $11.8K | $9.9K | +$910.88 | 56% 102-81 (183) |
AN AnibalAugustoSardinha | Team Liquidavg 68¢ | $7.6K | $7.9K | +$388.88 | 52% 75-69 (144) |
FI five5120 | Team Liquidavg 71.3¢ | $7.3K | $6.9K | -$388.35 | 70% 336-141 (477) |
Invested
$363,870.72
Value
$364.1K
PnL
+$213.55
Record
98%
12945-204 (13149)
Invested
$134,865
Value
$134.9K
PnL
+$67.5
Record
99%
1141-4 (1145)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$118,337.75
Value
$122.3K
PnL
+$4.0K
Record
53%
2383-2087 (4470)
Invested
$61,565.13
Value
$75.7K
PnL
+$14.1K
Record
50%
7309-7439 (14748)
c4acapInvested
$75,464.46
Value
$75.5K
PnL
+$37.77
Record
98%
2413-40 (2453)
Invested
$37,276.35
Value
$39.0K
PnL
+$2.7K
Record
70%
49-21 (70)
Invested
$39,704.09
Value
$38.1K
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
54%
505-434 (939)
Invested
$30,946.76
Value
$32.9K
PnL
+$1.9K
Record
56%
2860-2290 (5150)
Invested
$26,042.38
Value
$25.7K
PnL
-$363.93
Record
63%
2030-1199 (3229)
Both legs:
Invested
$23,312.77
Value
$23.4K
PnL
+$56.69
Record
95%
2235-116 (2351)
Invested
$17,019.01
Value
$19.8K
PnL
+$2.7K
Record
69%
44-20 (64)
JustADonkInvested
$14,837.69
Value
$17.6K
PnL
+$2.8K
Record
55%
892-736 (1628)
3648393489047Invested
$14,205.65
Value
$14.4K
PnL
+$202.01
Record
61%
1119-707 (1826)
Invested
$9,670
Value
$14.2K
PnL
+$4.5K
Record
57%
659-504 (1163)
AnjunInvested
$10,421.81
Value
$13.0K
PnL
+$2.6K
Record
55%
4903-3963 (8866)
Invested
$14,931.5
Value
$12.6K
PnL
$-2.3K
Record
53%
4002-3482 (7484)
0xheavy888ARB<$100Invested
$14,141.55
Value
$12.6K
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
56%
7065-5663 (12728)
Both legs:
DamwonChampions2026Invested
$14,766.15
Value
$11.7K
PnL
$-3.1K
Record
53%
2059-1823 (3882)
Invested
$11,600
Value
$11.7K
PnL
+$100
Record
54%
2476-2130 (4606)
minjiARB<$100Invested
$12,596.99
Value
$10.8K
PnL
$-1.8K
Record
52%
1791-1648 (3439)
Both legs:
Invested
$6,871.87
Value
$10.5K
PnL
+$3.6K
Record
49%
1157-1208 (2365)
Invested
$9,754.77
Value
$10.0K
PnL
+$208.58
Record
32%
355-739 (1094)
relativesignificanceInvested
$11,813.68
Value
$9.9K
PnL
+$910.88
Record
56%
102-81 (183)
Invested
$7,555.47
Value
$7.9K
PnL
+$388.88
Record
52%
75-69 (144)
Invested
$7,333.02
Value
$6.9K
PnL
-$388.35
Record
70%
336-141 (477)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
zxc368
Team Liquid — $364.1K
landighertz
Team Liquid — $134.9K
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f
Team Liquid — $122.3K
jakepaulthegoat2008
Team Liquid — $75.7K
c4acap
Team Liquid — $75.5K
Ja888
Team Liquid — $39.0K
pnhct
Team Liquid — $38.1K
Anon455
Team Liquid — $32.9K
fkAL
ARBArbitrage — excluded
AnonymousPerson
Team Liquid — $23.4K