LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS - Game 1 Winner

35 of 62 top Polymarket traders hold Team Liquid (56%) · Team Liquid at 51¢ · $467K held · ends Oct 31

Team Liquid51¢LOS49¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Liquid

Consensus Traders

Team Liquid 56%

16 arb excluded

Total Value

$467.1K

Combined PnL

$-5.4K

Smart Money Entry

64.6¢ → 50.5¢

-22% since entry · 35 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

35 of 62 top traders (56%)16 arbitrage traders dimmed27 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Liquid51%

LOS50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Liquid35 traders

Total Value$171.9K

Total Shares272,716

Combined PnL$-6.6K

LOS27 traders

Total Value$86.2K

Total Shares225,293

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Team Liquid — 56%LOS — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 55.2¢	$46.9K	$47.6K	+$777.68	53% 2376-2085 (4461)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 55.2¢	$27.8K	$25.4K	$-2.4K
└ LOS leg	LOSavg 42.5¢	$19.1K	$22.3K	+$3.2K
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 58.2¢	$35.7K	$34.6K	$-1.0K	56% 2860-2289 (5149)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 58.2¢	$20.9K	$18.1K	$-2.8K
└ LOS leg	LOSavg 44.3¢	$14.8K	$16.5K	+$1.7K
DamwonChampions2026ARB<$100	LOSavg 44.9¢	$21.5K	$22.3K	+$792.25	53% 2058-1823 (3881)
└ LOS leg	LOSavg 44.9¢	$13.5K	$14.9K	+$1.4K
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 54.6¢	$8.0K	$7.4K	-$597.73
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Team Liquidavg 66.6¢	$22.1K	$22.2K	+$159.38	53% 910-800 (1710)
minjiARB<$100	LOSavg 44.9¢	$20.3K	$21.7K	+$1.4K	52% 1791-1648 (3439)
└ LOS leg	LOSavg 44.9¢	$14.6K	$16.1K	+$1.5K
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 51.1¢	$5.7K	$5.6K	-$69.08
dodsterbot	Team Liquidavg 66¢	$20.3K	$21.1K	+$753.66	46% 630-731 (1361)
FK fkALARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 66¢	$18.5K	$18.7K	+$245.39	63% 2030-1199 (3229)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 66¢	$10.9K	$10.3K	-$575.79
└ LOS leg	LOSavg 33.8¢	$7.6K	$8.4K	+$821.18
relativesignificance	Team Liquidavg 67.8¢	$23.9K	$16.0K	-$221.32	56% 102-79 (181)
OM omnibus-076daa	Team Liquidavg 68.5¢	$21.2K	$16.0K	$-5.2K	49% 19009-19414 (38423)
0xheavy888CTR	LOSavg 46.6¢	$14.4K	$15.1K	+$682.47	55% 7059-5661 (12720)
US Username2133ARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 62.5¢	$16.9K	$14.9K	$-2.0K	57% 89-67 (156)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 62.5¢	$11.8K	$10.3K	$-1.5K
└ LOS leg	LOSavg 49.8¢	$5.1K	$4.6K	-$440.91
BR BrotherObamaCTR	LOSavg 32.3¢	$15.0K	$14.6K	-$365.6	41% 247-354 (601)
YI yishiwuchengARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 65.5¢	$14.5K	$13.4K	$-1.1K	51% 1803-1736 (3539)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 65.5¢	$11.5K	$9.4K	$-2.1K
└ LOS leg	LOSavg 34.8¢	$3.0K	$4.0K	+$1.0K
PN pnhctARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 54.5¢	$13.2K	$13.4K	+$214.81	54% 505-431 (936)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 54.5¢	$8.1K	$7.5K	-$598.66
└ LOS leg	LOSavg 42.7¢	$5.1K	$5.9K	+$813.47
3648393489047CTR	LOSavg 35.5¢	$10.9K	$11.2K	+$312.75	61% 1119-707 (1826)
CA caishenbaoyoufadacai888	Team Liquidavg 71¢	$10.9K	$10.9K	-$77	57% 659-503 (1162)
TH THEHIGHLIFE	Team Liquidavg 52¢	$10.4K	$10.7K	+$299.28	54% 2476-2130 (4606)
LI LinkE5	Team Liquidavg 63¢	$10.0K	$10.1K	+$79.36	47% 702-782 (1484)
MaktMan	Team Liquidavg 69.9¢	$9.8K	$9.6K	-$190	51% 45-43 (88)
JA Ja888	Team Liquidavg 66¢	$9.4K	$9.4K	-$71.51	70% 49-21 (70)
YO yong32ARB<$100	Team Liquidavg 52.9¢	$9.0K	$9.0K	-$39.27	69% 44-20 (64)
└ Team Liquid leg	Team Liquidavg 52.9¢	$6.1K	$6.3K	+$185.62
└ LOS leg	LOSavg 49.4¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$224.89
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR	LOSavg 31¢	$7.5K	$7.9K	+$363.92	50% 7309-7436 (14745)
enpirugbrptiCTR	LOSavg 32.3¢	$6.6K	$7.0K	+$442.87	54% 3499-2958 (6457)
0X 0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR	LOSavg 47.5¢	$4.5K	$4.7K	+$194.18	49% 1157-1208 (2365)
cs2.quant	Team Liquidavg 55.7¢	$4.8K	$4.6K	-$187.38	57% 84-63 (147)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$46,869.92

Value

$47.6K

PnL

+$777.68

Record

53%

2376-2085 (4461)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$27,765.0755.2¢$-2.4K

LOS$19,104.8542.5¢+$3.2K

Anon455ARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$35,665.15

Value

$34.6K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

56%

2860-2289 (5149)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$20,850.7758.2¢$-2.8K

LOS$14,814.3844.3¢+$1.7K

DamwonChampions2026ARB<$100

LOS

Invested

$21,478.25

Value

$22.3K

PnL

+$792.25

Record

53%

2058-1823 (3881)

Both legs:

LOS$13,502.144.9¢+$1.4K

Team Liquid$7,976.1454.6¢-$597.73

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Team Liquid

Invested

$22,063.27

Value

$22.2K

PnL

+$159.38

Record

53%

910-800 (1710)

minjiARB<$100

LOS

Invested

$20,307.48

Value

$21.7K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

52%

1791-1648 (3439)

Both legs:

LOS$14,606.5644.9¢+$1.5K

Team Liquid$5,700.9251.1¢-$69.08

dodsterbot

Team Liquid

Invested

$20,298.41

Value

$21.1K

PnL

+$753.66

Record

46%

630-731 (1361)

fkALARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$18,461.36

Value

$18.7K

PnL

+$245.39

Record

63%

2030-1199 (3229)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$10,857.7366¢-$575.79

LOS$7,603.6433.8¢+$821.18

relativesignificance

Team Liquid

Invested

$23,916.13

Value

$16.0K

PnL

-$221.32

Record

56%

102-79 (181)

omnibus-076daa

Team Liquid

Invested

$21,152.2

Value

$16.0K

PnL

$-5.2K

Record

49%

19009-19414 (38423)

0xheavy888CTR

LOS

Invested

$14,404.49

Value

$15.1K

PnL

+$682.47

Record

55%

7059-5661 (12720)

Username2133ARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$16,894.1

Value

$14.9K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

57%

89-67 (156)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$11,805.0662.5¢$-1.5K

LOS$5,089.0549.8¢-$440.91

BrotherObamaCTR

LOS

Invested

$15,000

Value

$14.6K

PnL

-$365.6

Record

41%

247-354 (601)

yishiwuchengARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$14,530.68

Value

$13.4K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

51%

1803-1736 (3539)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$11,528.1865.5¢$-2.1K

LOS$3,002.534.8¢+$1.0K

pnhctARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$13,200.24

Value

$13.4K

PnL

+$214.81

Record

54%

505-431 (936)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$8,125.5254.5¢-$598.66

LOS$5,074.7142.7¢+$813.47

3648393489047CTR

LOS

Invested

$10,921.6

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$312.75

Record

61%

1119-707 (1826)

caishenbaoyoufadacai888

Team Liquid

Invested

$10,934

Value

$10.9K

PnL

-$77

Record

57%

659-503 (1162)

THEHIGHLIFE

Team Liquid

Invested

$10,375.08

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$299.28

Record

54%

2476-2130 (4606)

LinkE5

Team Liquid

Invested

$9,999.98

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$79.36

Record

47%

702-782 (1484)

MaktMan

Team Liquid

Invested

$9,779.96

Value

$9.6K

PnL

-$190

Record

51%

45-43 (88)

Ja888

Team Liquid

Invested

$9,439.14

Value

$9.4K

PnL

-$71.51

Record

70%

49-21 (70)

yong32ARB<$100

Team Liquid

Invested

$8,989.84

Value

$9.0K

PnL

-$39.27

Record

69%

44-20 (64)

Both legs:

Team Liquid$6,143.7552.9¢+$185.62

LOS$2,846.0949.4¢-$224.89

jakepaulthegoat2008CTR

LOS

Invested

$7,521

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$363.92

Record

50%

7309-7436 (14745)

enpirugbrptiCTR

LOS

Invested

$6,556.93

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$442.87

Record

54%

3499-2958 (6457)

0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR

LOS

Invested

$4,549.3

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$194.18

Record

49%

1157-1208 (2365)

cs2.quant

Team Liquid

Invested

$4,822.48

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$187.38

Record

57%

84-63 (147)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Liquid at 51%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Team Liquid

35 of 62 top traders (56%)16 arbitrage traders dimmed27 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Liquid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.