Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Karmine Corp, while the market favors CTBC Flying Oyster (76%). 31 of 63 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

LoL: Karmine Corp vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 Winner

31 of 63 top Polymarket traders hold Karmine Corp (49%) · Karmine Corp at 25¢ · $570K held · ends Oct 30

Karmine Corp25¢CTBC Flying Oyster75¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Karmine Corp

Consensus Traders

Karmine Corp 49%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$570.2K

Combined PnL

$-21.9K

Smart Money Entry

70.2¢ → 24.5¢

-65% since entry · 31 traders

Research grade

AvoidKarmine Corp at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Karmine Corp

31 of 63 top traders (49%)Underdog side (market favors CTBC Flying Oyster 76%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed31 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Karmine Corp25%

CTBC Flying Oyster76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Karmine Corp31 traders

Total Value$297.5K

Total Shares445,339

Combined PnL$-26.9K

CTBC Flying Oyster32 traders

Total Value$111.2K

Total Shares256,471

Combined PnL+$5.0K

Karmine Corp — 49%CTBC Flying Oyster — 51%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR	Karmine Corpavg 74.5¢	$141.9K	$141.8K	-$89.9	50% 7299-7432 (14731)
zb8CTR	Karmine Corpavg 72.5¢	$80.7K	$81.2K	+$521.28	54% 628-542 (1170)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 58.6¢	$27.7K	$28.9K	+$1.2K	53% 2337-2067 (4404)
└ CTBC Flying Oyster leg	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 58.6¢	$17.5K	$22.5K	+$5.0K
└ Karmine Corp leg	Karmine Corpavg 39¢	$10.2K	$6.4K	$-3.8K
FK fkALARB<$100	Karmine Corpavg 29.7¢	$17.7K	$27.5K	+$9.9K	63% 2020-1195 (3215)
└ CTBC Flying Oyster leg	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 25.5¢	$6.0K	$17.5K	+$11.5K
└ Karmine Corp leg	Karmine Corpavg 29.7¢	$11.7K	$10.0K	$-1.6K
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Karmine Corpavg 49.3¢	$25.8K	$24.3K	$-1.6K	56% 2788-2211 (4999)
└ CTBC Flying Oyster leg	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 43.5¢	$9.2K	$16.0K	+$6.8K
└ Karmine Corp leg	Karmine Corpavg 49.3¢	$16.6K	$8.2K	$-8.3K
YO yong32ARB<$100	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 57.8¢	$17.3K	$18.0K	+$676.95	69% 41-18 (59)
└ CTBC Flying Oyster leg	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 57.8¢	$11.1K	$14.3K	+$3.2K
└ Karmine Corp leg	Karmine Corpavg 43.1¢	$6.2K	$3.7K	$-2.5K
PN pnhctARB<$100	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 53.2¢	$16.6K	$17.4K	+$760.9	54% 491-412 (903)
└ CTBC Flying Oyster leg	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 53.2¢	$9.4K	$13.3K	+$3.9K
└ Karmine Corp leg	Karmine Corpavg 43.5¢	$7.3K	$4.1K	$-3.2K
DamwonChampions2026	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 69.1¢	$13.7K	$14.0K	+$313.28	53% 2052-1818 (3870)
YI yishiwuchengCTR	Karmine Corpavg 71.7¢	$34.1K	$12.2K	$-22.0K	51% 1791-1724 (3515)
US Username2133ARB<$100	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 62.9¢	$13.9K	$12.1K	$-1.8K	58% 87-64 (151)
└ CTBC Flying Oyster leg	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 62.9¢	$8.2K	$8.5K	+$337.39
└ Karmine Corp leg	Karmine Corpavg 55.7¢	$5.7K	$3.5K	$-2.2K
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Karmine Corpavg 32.9¢	$10.1K	$12.0K	+$1.9K	53% 3931-3424 (7355)
└ CTBC Flying Oyster leg	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 34.8¢	$3.2K	$6.9K	+$3.7K
└ Karmine Corp leg	Karmine Corpavg 32.9¢	$7.0K	$5.2K	$-1.8K
0xheavy888ARB<$100	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 69.6¢	$12.6K	$12.0K	-$597.78	55% 6996-5613 (12609)
└ CTBC Flying Oyster leg	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 69.6¢	$7.9K	$8.5K	+$563.56
└ Karmine Corp leg	Karmine Corpavg 33.9¢	$4.7K	$3.5K	$-1.2K
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 29.2¢	$11.9K	$12.0K	+$108.13	53% 908-794 (1702)
minji	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 70.7¢	$11.8K	$12.0K	+$185.72	52% 1788-1641 (3429)
LI LinkE5	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 25¢	$9.0K	$9.9K	+$900	47% 699-777 (1476)
BL bluemol	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 78¢	$10.0K	$9.7K	-$251.62	75% 567-189 (756)
CA caishenbaoyoufadacai888CTR	Karmine Corpavg 75¢	$7.5K	$7.5K	-$50	57% 654-501 (1155)
SD sdfqq1	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 70.2¢	$6.8K	$7.1K	+$317.72	60% 266-180 (446)
saintaphextwinCTR	Karmine Corpavg 67.7¢	$8.3K	$6.7K	$-1.6K	39% 394-620 (1014)
enpirugbrpti	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 27.6¢	$6.6K	$6.6K	-$24.54	54% 3497-2955 (6452)
MaktManCTR	Karmine Corpavg 72.1¢	$6.5K	$6.5K	+$35	52% 41-38 (79)
JustADonk	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 28.4¢	$5.5K	$5.7K	+$214.91	55% 886-728 (1614)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 54.8¢	$5.3K	$5.2K	-$97.33	52% 13670-12491 (26161)
└ CTBC Flying Oyster leg	CTBC Flying Oysteravg 54.8¢	$2.9K	$4.0K	+$1.1K
└ Karmine Corp leg	Karmine Corpavg 47¢	$2.5K	$1.3K	$-1.2K
0X 0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR	Karmine Corpavg 73.8¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	-$21.04	57% 1085-809 (1894)
PE penguin1125CTR	Karmine Corpavg 75¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	-$33.33	48% 119-128 (247)

jakepaulthegoat2008CTR

Karmine Corp

Invested

$141,892.69

Value

$141.8K

PnL

-$89.9

Record

50%

7299-7432 (14731)

zb8CTR

Karmine Corp

Invested

$80,719.74

Value

$81.2K

PnL

+$521.28

Record

54%

628-542 (1170)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

CTBC Flying Oyster

Invested

$27,662.46

Value

$28.9K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

53%

2337-2067 (4404)

Both legs:

CTBC Flying Oyster$17,481.458.6¢+$5.0K

Karmine Corp$10,181.0639¢$-3.8K

fkALARB<$100

Karmine Corp

Invested

$17,670.07

Value

$27.5K

PnL

+$9.9K

Record

63%

2020-1195 (3215)

Both legs:

CTBC Flying Oyster$6,000.8325.5¢+$11.5K

Karmine Corp$11,669.2329.7¢$-1.6K

Anon455ARB<$100

Karmine Corp

Invested

$25,821.52

Value

$24.3K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

56%

2788-2211 (4999)

Both legs:

CTBC Flying Oyster$9,233.8143.5¢+$6.8K

Karmine Corp$16,587.7149.3¢$-8.3K

yong32ARB<$100

CTBC Flying Oyster

Invested

$17,318.55

Value

$18.0K

PnL

+$676.95

Record

69%

41-18 (59)

Both legs:

CTBC Flying Oyster$11,120.657.8¢+$3.2K

Karmine Corp$6,197.9443.1¢$-2.5K

pnhctARB<$100

CTBC Flying Oyster

Invested

$16,639.33

Value

$17.4K

PnL

+$760.9

Record

54%

491-412 (903)

Both legs:

CTBC Flying Oyster$9,369.0753.2¢+$3.9K

Karmine Corp$7,270.2643.5¢$-3.2K

DamwonChampions2026

CTBC Flying Oyster

Invested

$13,706.09

Value

$14.0K

PnL

+$313.28

Record

53%

2052-1818 (3870)

yishiwuchengCTR

Karmine Corp

Invested

$34,119.55

Value

$12.2K

PnL

$-22.0K

Record

51%

1791-1724 (3515)

Username2133ARB<$100

CTBC Flying Oyster

Invested

$13,920.44

Value

$12.1K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

58%

87-64 (151)

Both legs:

CTBC Flying Oyster$8,203.1662.9¢+$337.39

Karmine Corp$5,717.2855.7¢$-2.2K

takeormakeARB<$100

Karmine Corp

Invested

$10,118.49

Value

$12.0K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

53%

3931-3424 (7355)

Both legs:

CTBC Flying Oyster$3,166.6434.8¢+$3.7K

Karmine Corp$6,951.8532.9¢$-1.8K

0xheavy888ARB<$100

CTBC Flying Oyster

Invested

$12,635.38

Value

$12.0K

PnL

-$597.78

Record

55%

6996-5613 (12609)

Both legs:

CTBC Flying Oyster$7,938.7469.6¢+$563.56

Karmine Corp$4,696.6533.9¢$-1.2K

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

CTBC Flying Oyster

Invested

$11,880.58

Value

$12.0K

PnL

+$108.13

Record

53%

908-794 (1702)

minji

CTBC Flying Oyster

Invested

$11,764.86

Value

$12.0K

PnL

+$185.72

Record

52%

1788-1641 (3429)

LinkE5

CTBC Flying Oyster

Invested

$9,000

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$900

Record

47%

699-777 (1476)

bluemol

CTBC Flying Oyster

Invested

$10,000

Value

$9.7K

PnL

-$251.62

Record

75%

567-189 (756)

caishenbaoyoufadacai888CTR

Karmine Corp

Invested

$7,500

Value

$7.5K

PnL

-$50

Record

57%

654-501 (1155)

sdfqq1

CTBC Flying Oyster

Invested

$6,781.55

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$317.72

Record

60%

266-180 (446)

saintaphextwinCTR

Karmine Corp

Invested

$8,276.92

Value

$6.7K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

39%

394-620 (1014)

enpirugbrpti

CTBC Flying Oyster

Invested

$6,575.8

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$24.54

Record

54%

3497-2955 (6452)

MaktManCTR

Karmine Corp

Invested

$6,490

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$35

Record

52%

41-38 (79)

JustADonk

CTBC Flying Oyster

Invested

$5,519.86

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$214.91

Record

55%

886-728 (1614)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

CTBC Flying Oyster

Invested

$5,341.37

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$97.33

Record

52%

13670-12491 (26161)

Both legs:

CTBC Flying Oyster$2,874.8654.8¢+$1.1K

Karmine Corp$2,466.5147¢$-1.2K

0x6918EA182D963b1Fb7888860b8a8b8bCfbA5782b-1771878010027CTR

Karmine Corp

Invested

$4,996.25

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$21.04

Record

57%

1085-809 (1894)

penguin1125CTR

Karmine Corp

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$33.33

Record

48%

119-128 (247)

Research grade

AvoidKarmine Corp at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Karmine Corp

31 of 63 top traders (49%)Underdog side (market favors CTBC Flying Oyster 76%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed31 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Karmine Corp wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.