LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner
40 of 72 top Polymarket traders hold Bilibili Gaming (56%) · Bilibili Gaming at 100¢ · $783K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Bilibili Gaming
72
Bilibili Gaming 56%
13 arb excluded
$783.4K
$-34.7K
57.7¢ → 100¢
+73% since entry · 40 traders
Research grade
NeutralBilibili Gaming at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
40 of 72 top traders (56%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed32 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sunshine.Smile | Bilibili Gamingavg 47.3¢ | $114.1K | $107.4K | $-6.7K | 58% 1864-1347 (3211) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100 | Bilibili Gamingavg 70.5¢ | $86.3K | $86.8K | +$502.97 | 54% 2440-2099 (4539) |
| └ Hanwha Life Esports leg | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 28.8¢ | $25.0K | $48.1K | +$23.1K | |
| └ Bilibili Gaming leg | Bilibili Gamingavg 70.5¢ | $61.3K | $38.7K | $-22.6K | |
 zb8ARB<$100 | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 57¢ | $55.5K | $54.6K | -$972.72 | 53% 635-553 (1188) |
| └ Hanwha Life Esports leg | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 57¢ | $43.2K | $42.1K | $-1.1K | |
| └ Bilibili Gaming leg | Bilibili Gamingavg 44¢ | $12.4K | $12.5K | +$146.97 | |
 PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN | Bilibili Gamingavg 47.4¢ | $42.7K | $40.0K | $-2.6K | 53% 912-804 (1716) |
ZX zxc368 | Bilibili Gamingavg 99.9¢ | $30.6K | $30.6K | +$15.32 | 98% 13229-211 (13440) |
PN pnhct | Bilibili Gamingavg 70.8¢ | $29.3K | $29.1K | -$166.26 | 54% 527-456 (983) |
YO yong32ARB<$100 | Bilibili Gamingavg 64¢ | $21.4K | $20.5K | -$893.06 | 67% 47-23 (70) |
| └ Hanwha Life Esports leg | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 36.6¢ | $6.8K | $10.4K | +$3.5K | |
| └ Bilibili Gaming leg | Bilibili Gamingavg 64¢ | $14.6K | $10.1K | $-4.4K | |
 dodsterbotARB<$100 | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 52.3¢ | $24.8K | $20.0K | +$1.5K | 46% 632-741 (1373) |
| └ Hanwha Life Esports leg | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 52.3¢ | $10.5K | $11.1K | +$837.53 | |
| └ Bilibili Gaming leg | Bilibili Gamingavg 41.7¢ | $8.3K | $8.9K | +$615 | |
 KateBollingerARB<$100 | Bilibili Gamingavg 47.9¢ | $21.0K | $20.0K | -$854.12 | 68% 1750-810 (2560) |
| └ Bilibili Gaming leg | Bilibili Gamingavg 47.9¢ | $12.2K | $11.3K | -$872.57 | |
| └ Hanwha Life Esports leg | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 55.4¢ | $8.6K | $8.7K | +$18.45 | |
JA jakepaulthegoat2008 | Bilibili Gamingavg 45¢ | $19.3K | $19.1K | -$206.87 | 50% 7320-7451 (14771) |
CO ColdBlooded | Bilibili Gamingavg 95.3¢ | $35.2K | $16.4K | $-18.8K | 72% 142-56 (198) |
 DamwonChampions2026CTR | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 39.4¢ | $13.6K | $16.3K | +$2.7K | 53% 2065-1825 (3890) |
 minjiCTR | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 39.6¢ | $12.3K | $15.8K | +$3.5K | 52% 1796-1652 (3448) |
 JustADonk | Bilibili Gamingavg 63.2¢ | $27.0K | $15.7K | $-7.2K | 55% 894-740 (1634) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 41.4¢ | $11.9K | $14.7K | +$2.8K | 55% 7193-5787 (12980) |
PA para-VisionARB<$100 | Bilibili Gamingavg 48.3¢ | $14.8K | $14.4K | -$436.82 | 56% 215-169 (384) |
| └ Bilibili Gaming leg | Bilibili Gamingavg 48.3¢ | $8.3K | $7.7K | -$660.52 | |
| └ Hanwha Life Esports leg | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 53.7¢ | $6.5K | $6.7K | +$223.69 | |
JA Ja888 | Bilibili Gamingavg 79.3¢ | $28.2K | $13.9K | $-11.7K | 69% 53-24 (77) |
AU authfeezCTR | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 54¢ | $13.5K | $13.9K | +$377.26 | 62% 43-26 (69) |
0X 0xF201A19b43471261A3c1Ba9247335d55270e527e-1763824114616CTR | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 57¢ | $14.3K | $13.9K | -$375 | 49% 1161-1215 (2376) |
 NooseracCTR | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 55¢ | $13.7K | $13.9K | +$125 | 52% 5791-5380 (11171) |
LI LinkE5CTR | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 52.4¢ | $12.8K | $13.5K | +$758.48 | 47% 707-789 (1496) |
YI yishiwuchengCTR | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 49.6¢ | $12.4K | $13.5K | +$1.1K | 51% 1825-1752 (3577) |
CA caishenbaoyoufadacai888CTR | Hanwha Life Esportsavg 53.1¢ | $12.7K | $13.3K | +$569.69 | 57% 669-512 (1181) |
FR freeman123 | Bilibili Gamingavg 90.3¢ | $9.9K | $11.0K | +$1.1K | 82% 551-124 (675) |
 solo88888 | Bilibili Gamingavg 45¢ | $22.5K | $10.1K | +$12.2K | 41% 183-260 (443) |
Sunshine.SmileInvested
$114,059.48
Value
$107.4K
PnL
$-6.7K
Record
58%
1864-1347 (3211)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100Invested
$86,312.38
Value
$86.8K
PnL
+$502.97
Record
54%
2440-2099 (4539)
Both legs:
zb8ARB<$100Invested
$55,542.45
Value
$54.6K
PnL
-$972.72
Record
53%
635-553 (1188)
Both legs:
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANInvested
$42,699.99
Value
$40.0K
PnL
$-2.6K
Record
53%
912-804 (1716)
Invested
$30,601.9
Value
$30.6K
PnL
+$15.32
Record
98%
13229-211 (13440)
Invested
$29,257.24
Value
$29.1K
PnL
-$166.26
Record
54%
527-456 (983)
Invested
$21,426.58
Value
$20.5K
PnL
-$893.06
Record
67%
47-23 (70)
Both legs:
dodsterbotARB<$100Invested
$24,826.14
Value
$20.0K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
46%
632-741 (1373)
Both legs:
KateBollingerARB<$100Invested
$21,026.21
Value
$20.0K
PnL
-$854.12
Record
68%
1750-810 (2560)
Both legs:
Invested
$19,267.45
Value
$19.1K
PnL
-$206.87
Record
50%
7320-7451 (14771)
Invested
$35,167.04
Value
$16.4K
PnL
$-18.8K
Record
72%
142-56 (198)
DamwonChampions2026CTRInvested
$13,586.74
Value
$16.3K
PnL
+$2.7K
Record
53%
2065-1825 (3890)
minjiCTRInvested
$12,327.35
Value
$15.8K
PnL
+$3.5K
Record
52%
1796-1652 (3448)
JustADonkInvested
$27,005.46
Value
$15.7K
PnL
$-7.2K
Record
55%
894-740 (1634)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$11,865.99
Value
$14.7K
PnL
+$2.8K
Record
55%
7193-5787 (12980)
Invested
$14,843
Value
$14.4K
PnL
-$436.82
Record
56%
215-169 (384)
Both legs:
Invested
$28,195.03
Value
$13.9K
PnL
$-11.7K
Record
69%
53-24 (77)
Invested
$13,500
Value
$13.9K
PnL
+$377.26
Record
62%
43-26 (69)
Invested
$14,250
Value
$13.9K
PnL
-$375
Record
49%
1161-1215 (2376)
NooseracCTRInvested
$13,750
Value
$13.9K
PnL
+$125
Record
52%
5791-5380 (11171)
Invested
$12,784.74
Value
$13.5K
PnL
+$758.48
Record
47%
707-789 (1496)
Invested
$12,435.54
Value
$13.5K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
51%
1825-1752 (3577)
Invested
$12,728.65
Value
$13.3K
PnL
+$569.69
Record
57%
669-512 (1181)
Invested
$9,905.42
Value
$11.0K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
82%
551-124 (675)
solo88888Invested
$22,500
Value
$10.1K
PnL
+$12.2K
Record
41%
183-260 (443)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Sunshine.Smile
Bilibili Gaming — $107.4K
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f
ARBArbitrage — excluded
zb8
ARBArbitrage — excluded
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN
Bilibili Gaming — $40.0K
zxc368
Bilibili Gaming — $30.6K
pnhct
Bilibili Gaming — $29.1K
yong32
ARBArbitrage — excluded
dodsterbot
ARBArbitrage — excluded
KateBollinger
ARBArbitrage — excluded
jakepaulthegoat2008
Bilibili Gaming — $19.1K