LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Gen.G (50%) · Gen.G at 55¢ · $101K held · ends Nov 15

Bilibili Gaming46¢Gen.G54¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Gen.G

Consensus Traders

Gen.G 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$101.3K

Combined PnL

$897.07

Smart Money Entry

55.9¢ → 54.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralGen.G at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

7 of 14 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bilibili Gaming46%

Gen.G55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bilibili Gaming7 traders

Total Value$45.9K

Total Shares100,928

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Gen.G7 traders

Total Value$54.0K

Total Shares97,714

Combined PnL-$560.77

Bilibili Gaming — 50%Gen.G — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 44¢	$42.2K	$43.6K	+$1.4K	51% 3880-3665 (7545)
llllllllloooo	Gen.Gavg 56¢	$28.7K	$27.9K	-$743.69	12% 13-97 (110)
AN AnibalAugustoSardinha	Gen.Gavg 55.8¢	$16.2K	$16.4K	+$212.7	50% 107-106 (213)
SB sbimbg	Gen.Gavg 56¢	$5.6K	$5.6K	+$50	— 13-6 (19)
AL AlanCurtis	Gen.Gavg 56¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$72.91	1% 1-116 (117)
0X 0x7986576408b65a9805AC85553Be33Ad0B044BAa5-1781719173927CTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 45¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$17.75	55% 233-190 (423)
CH chiefphi	Gen.Gavg 55¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$10	— 5-11 (16)
NO Novelty8ARB<$100	Gen.Gavg 55¢	$3.7K	$932.12	-$18.58	7% 13-163 (176)
└ Gen.G leg	Gen.Gavg 55¢	$512.63	$521.95	-$185.98
└ Bilibili Gaming leg	Bilibili Gamingavg 44¢	$410.17	$410.17	+$167.4
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Gen.Gavg 52.9¢	$1.4K	$411.23	+$3.25	52% 895-837 (1732)
└ Gen.G leg	Gen.Gavg 52.9¢	$277.97	$286.11	+$43.12
└ Bilibili Gaming leg	Bilibili Gamingavg 46.4¢	$127.7	$125.12	-$39.87
SK skadiiCTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 44¢	$318.45	$322.07	+$3.62	— 6-10 (16)
AN Anon455	Gen.Gavg 54¢	$261.49	$264.38	+$2.88	49% 427-437 (864)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 44¢	$160.72	$160.72	-$0	42% 607-844 (1451)
BR brobrobrobrobroCTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 45¢	$364.01	$107.19	-$1.61	26% 11-31 (42)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 44¢	$74.45	$74.63	+$0.18	53% 1867-1658 (3525)
7V 7ViziCapitaleCTR<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 44¢	$35.76	$35.76	-$0	— 4-9 (13)
TA taemaxx<$100	Gen.Gavg 54¢	$12.96	$13.2	+$0.24	68% 19-9 (28)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$42,178.43

Value

$43.6K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

51%

3880-3665 (7545)

llllllllloooo

Gen.G

Invested

$28,681.78

Value

$27.9K

PnL

-$743.69

Record

12%

13-97 (110)

AnibalAugustoSardinha

Gen.G

Invested

$16,169.19

Value

$16.4K

PnL

+$212.7

Record

50%

107-106 (213)

sbimbg

Gen.G

Invested

$5,600

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$50

Record

—

13-6 (19)

AlanCurtis

Gen.G

Invested

$2,834.06

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$72.91

Record

1-116 (117)

0x7986576408b65a9805AC85553Be33Ad0B044BAa5-1781719173927CTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$1,597.73

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$17.75

Record

55%

233-190 (423)

chiefphi

Gen.G

Invested

$1,099.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$10

Record

—

5-11 (16)

Novelty8ARB<$100

Gen.G

Invested

$3,684.84

Value

$932.12

PnL

-$18.58

Record

13-163 (176)

Both legs:

Gen.G$512.6355¢-$185.98

Bilibili Gaming$410.1744¢+$167.4

NotJumpARB<$100

Gen.G

Invested

$1,383.17

Value

$411.23

PnL

+$3.25

Record

52%

895-837 (1732)

Both legs:

Gen.G$277.9752.9¢+$43.12

Bilibili Gaming$127.746.4¢-$39.87

skadiiCTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$318.45

Value

$322.07

PnL

+$3.62

Record

—

6-10 (16)

Anon455

Gen.G

Invested

$261.49

Value

$264.38

PnL

+$2.88

Record

49%

427-437 (864)

BreakTheBankCTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$160.72

Value

$160.72

PnL

-$0

Record

42%

607-844 (1451)

brobrobrobrobroCTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$364.01

Value

$107.19

PnL

-$1.61

Record

26%

11-31 (42)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$74.45

Value

$74.63

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

1867-1658 (3525)

7ViziCapitaleCTR<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$35.76

Value

$35.76

PnL

-$0

Record

—

4-9 (13)

taemaxx<$100

Gen.G

Invested

$12.96

Value

$13.2

PnL

+$0.24

Record

68%

19-9 (28)

Research grade

NeutralGen.G at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Gen.G

7 of 14 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gen.G wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.