Will Valencia CF win on 2026-11-07?

8 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (47%) · No at 93¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 7

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 47%

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

-$129.87

Smart Money Entry

91.4¢ → 92.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 17 top traders (47%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares11,415

Combined PnL+$516.58

Yes9 traders

Total Value$689.51

Total Shares9,063

Combined PnL-$646.45

No — 47%Yes — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

75h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 91.4¢	$507.14	$4.8K	+$452.55	51% 27041-25614 (52655)
Taroooooo	Noavg 92¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$15.22	62% 151-91 (242)
GC GC-P	Noavg 90.9¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$26.86	64% 10173-5762 (15935)
NM NM-P	Noavg 91¢	$760.87	$769.1	+$8.23	64% 10175-5710 (15885)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 90.9¢	$514.47	$520.78	+$9.15	51% 38177-37419 (75596)
MI MigRodrCTR	Yesavg 18.6¢	$1.0K	$416.63	-$619.26	24% 18-56 (74)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 8.4¢	$178.87	$160.31	-$18.55	50% 28880-28690 (57570)
CA Cannae	Noavg 91.3¢	$134.03	$135.04	+$2.35	53% 16962-15085 (32047)
XT xtxpleasecallme	No	$129.72	$129.72	+$0.71	35% 19615-37161 (56776)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$36.16	$34	-$2.13	48% 7444-7979 (15423)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.4¢	$30.04	$26.93	-$3.12	50% 21530-21816 (43346)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.4¢	$25.88	$24.74	-$1.14	50% 1821-1809 (3630)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 86¢	$20	$21.39	+$1.51	53% 2689-2368 (5057)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$15.19	$13.15	-$1.39	48% 62365-67229 (129594)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.4¢	$10.63	$10.16	-$0.64	46% 8761-10456 (19217)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.4¢	$2.93	$2.8	-$0.13	49% 1765-1864 (3629)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.5¢	$0.85	$0.8	-$0.1	52% 8999-8155 (17154)

Flaznorp

Invested

$507.14

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$452.55

Record

51%

27041-25614 (52655)

Taroooooo

Invested

$2,801.32

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$15.22

Record

62%

151-91 (242)

GC-P

Invested

$1,185.66

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$26.86

Record

64%

10173-5762 (15935)

NM-P

Invested

$760.87

Value

$769.1

PnL

+$8.23

Record

64%

10175-5710 (15885)

SnakeBall

Invested

$514.47

Value

$520.78

PnL

+$9.15

Record

51%

38177-37419 (75596)

MigRodrCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,035.89

Value

$416.63

PnL

-$619.26

Record

24%

18-56 (74)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$178.87

Value

$160.31

PnL

-$18.55

Record

50%

28880-28690 (57570)

Cannae

Invested

$134.03

Value

$135.04

PnL

+$2.35

Record

53%

16962-15085 (32047)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$129.72

Value

$129.72

PnL

+$0.71

Record

35%

19615-37161 (56776)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.16

Value

$34

PnL

-$2.13

Record

48%

7444-7979 (15423)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.04

Value

$26.93

PnL

-$3.12

Record

50%

21530-21816 (43346)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.88

Value

$24.74

PnL

-$1.14

Record

50%

1821-1809 (3630)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$21.39

PnL

+$1.51

Record

53%

2689-2368 (5057)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.19

Value

$13.15

PnL

-$1.39

Record

48%

62365-67229 (129594)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.63

Value

$10.16

PnL

-$0.64

Record

46%

8761-10456 (19217)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.93

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$0.13

Record

49%

1765-1864 (3629)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

8999-8155 (17154)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 17 top traders (47%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

75h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.