Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 0 - 1 Athletic Club?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 55¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 10

Yes45¢No55¢Ended Sat, Oct 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$493.41

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 54.9¢

-38% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,300

Combined PnL+$111.24

Yes3 traders

Total Value$46.54

Total Shares1,513

Combined PnL+$382.17

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 87¢	$870	$990	+$120	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 89.5¢	$187.09	$207	+$19.91	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Yesavg 12.9¢	$170.06	$42.51	+$405.73	56% 7896-6221 (14117)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$62.78	$35.44	-$27.34	39% 5672-8728 (14400)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89.9¢	$16.67	$18.37	+$1.7	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
YO youcanbuythisbot<$100	Noavg 87¢	$8.07	$3.99	-$3.03	64% 8672-4801 (13473)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$38.07	$3.81	-$34.26	58% 50269-36312 (86581)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1.85	$0.23	+$10.7	48% 59324-63332 (122656)

Flaznorp

Invested

$870

Value

$990

PnL

+$120

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$187.09

Value

$207

PnL

+$19.91

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Yes

Invested

$170.06

Value

$42.51

PnL

+$405.73

Record

56%

7896-6221 (14117)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$62.78

Value

$35.44

PnL

-$27.34

Record

39%

5672-8728 (14400)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$16.67

Value

$18.37

PnL

+$1.7

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

youcanbuythisbot<$100

Invested

$8.07

Value

$3.99

PnL

-$3.03

Record

64%

8672-4801 (13473)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.07

Value

$3.81

PnL

-$34.26

Record

58%

50269-36312 (86581)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.85

Value

$0.23

PnL

+$10.7

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.1%

54.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$75.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

175.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.