Will Elche CF win on 2026-11-08?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 73¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$2.3K
-$287.25
86.2¢ → 72.5¢
-16% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI MigRodr | Noavg 86.3¢ | $2.2K | $1.9K | -$341.35 | 24% 18-56 (74) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 23.6¢ | $253.69 | $307.68 | +$41.5 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.1¢ | $55.24 | $56.97 | +$1.73 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $11.2 | $23.2 | +$10.8 | 53% 6334-5615 (11949) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $11.07 | $11.15 | +$0.08 | 64% 10183-5729 (15912) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $0.41 | $0.41 | -$0 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
Invested
$2,237.93
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$341.35
Record
24%
18-56 (74)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$253.69
Value
$307.68
PnL
+$41.5
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
Invested
$55.24
Value
$56.97
PnL
+$1.73
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$11.2
Value
$23.2
PnL
+$10.8
Record
53%
6334-5615 (11949)
Invested
$11.07
Value
$11.15
PnL
+$0.08
Record
64%
10183-5729 (15912)
Invested
$0.41
Value
$0.41
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.