Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 21 of 36 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026?

21 of 36 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (58%) · Yes at 39¢ · $90K held · ends Nov 12

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 58%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$89.9K

Combined PnL

$555.9

Smart Money Entry

36.8¢ → 38.5¢

+5% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

21 of 36 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes21 traders

Total Value$52.6K

Total Shares137,297

Combined PnL+$1.8K

No15 traders

Total Value$23.2K

Total Shares37,371

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Yes — 58%No — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sniperYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 65% · 17

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 32

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 36.4¢	$29.1K	$30.8K	+$1.7K	27% 41-112 (153)
Parz1vaIARB<$100	Yesavg 38.1¢	$18.0K	$13.8K	+$105.31	73% 1113-422 (1535)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38.1¢	$9.9K	$10.0K	+$96.46
└ No leg	Noavg 63.5¢	$3.9K	$3.8K	+$8.85
TBill1	Noavg 62.7¢	$10.1K	$7.0K	-$220.37	0% 0-106 (106)
DragontreeCTR	Yesavg 36.6¢	$5.1K	$5.0K	-$97.15	— 0-2 (2)
paddaaCTR	Yesavg 36.6¢	$4.5K	$4.4K	+$154.4	60% 497-335 (832)
PL plusti	Noavg 72.7¢	$5.1K	$4.3K	-$792.09	28% 16-42 (58)
Rex416	Noavg 65.7¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	-$256.58	— 13-3 (16)
BeneGesseritVoiceCTR	Yesavg 39¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$32.22	— 0-1 (1)
Car	Noavg 62.6¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$43.32	69% 1400-643 (2043)
Optimus-CTR	Yesavg 37.1¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$62.18	— 0-6 (6)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Yesavg 39¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$21.7	1% 3-584 (587)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 37.2¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$41.1	45% 132-162 (294)
0X 0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4	Noavg 62.8¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$32.5	—
Lolakis	Noavg 62.7¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	+$30.4	3% 1-31 (32)
AL AlphaBetaGamma2357CTR	Yesavg 38.3¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$5	— 2-6 (8)
2H 2HAE	Noavg 64.2¢	$999.6	$957.91	-$41.69	14% 15-94 (109)
ifyoulovemeCTR	Yesavg 35¢	$762.21	$838.21	+$76	52% 264-248 (512)
clazzy1	Noavg 62¢	$620	$640.65	+$20.65	2% 1-41 (42)
Nostdam	Noavg 64.7¢	$654.66	$621.98	-$32.68	5% 6-109 (115)
0X 0x77266604E63f5cAF08D19CaEBae0C563ce064aECTR	Yesavg 37¢	$527.49	$548.88	+$21.38	— 1-1 (2)
PO poptreeCTR	Yesavg 35¢	$503.95	$517.42	+$13.47	68% 204-95 (299)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR	Yesavg 37¢	$480.57	$471.52	-$9.06	45% 13-16 (29)
HoshinoAI	Noavg 61.3¢	$1.9K	$456.89	+$23.61	42% 13-18 (31)
NE NewshoundCTR	Yesavg 45.5¢	$546	$431.22	-$114.77	0% 0-161 (161)
PB pbshineCTR	Yesavg 39¢	$409.09	$376.95	-$32.15	— 2-7 (9)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$29,125.8

Value

$30.8K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

27%

41-112 (153)

Parz1vaIARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$17,993.12

Value

$13.8K

PnL

+$105.31

Record

73%

1113-422 (1535)

Both legs:

Yes$9,947.4138.1¢+$96.46

No$3,897.1363.5¢+$8.85

TBill1

Invested

$10,100.76

Value

$7.0K

PnL

-$220.37

Record

0-106 (106)

DragontreeCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,129.17

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$97.15

Record

—

0-2 (2)

paddaaCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,486.43

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$154.4

Record

60%

497-335 (832)

plusti

Invested

$5,136.99

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$792.09

Record

28%

16-42 (58)

Rex416

Invested

$4,048.68

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$256.58

Record

—

13-3 (16)

BeneGesseritVoiceCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,513.1

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$32.22

Record

—

0-1 (1)

Car

Invested

$1,676.95

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$43.32

Record

69%

1400-643 (2043)

Optimus-CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,645.95

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$62.18

Record

—

0-6 (6)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,692.8

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$21.7

Record

3-584 (587)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,650.46

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$41.1

Record

45%

132-162 (294)

0xecb1d3b9d240a8347415108882cb8fa1f7e2f1c4

Invested

$1,570

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$32.5

Record

—

Lolakis

Invested

$1,670.86

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$30.4

Record

1-31 (32)

AlphaBetaGamma2357CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,149.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$5

Record

—

2-6 (8)

2HAE

Invested

$999.6

Value

$957.91

PnL

-$41.69

Record

14%

15-94 (109)

ifyoulovemeCTR

Yes

Invested

$762.21

Value

$838.21

PnL

+$76

Record

52%

264-248 (512)

clazzy1

Invested

$620

Value

$640.65

PnL

+$20.65

Record

1-41 (42)

Nostdam

Invested

$654.66

Value

$621.98

PnL

-$32.68

Record

6-109 (115)

0x77266604E63f5cAF08D19CaEBae0C563ce064aECTR

Yes

Invested

$527.49

Value

$548.88

PnL

+$21.38

Record

—

1-1 (2)

poptreeCTR

Yes

Invested

$503.95

Value

$517.42

PnL

+$13.47

Record

68%

204-95 (299)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR

Yes

Invested

$480.57

Value

$471.52

PnL

-$9.06

Record

45%

13-16 (29)

HoshinoAI

Invested

$1,896.51

Value

$456.89

PnL

+$23.61

Record

42%

13-18 (31)

NewshoundCTR

Yes

Invested

$546

Value

$431.22

PnL

-$114.77

Record

0-161 (161)

pbshineCTR

Yes

Invested

$409.09

Value

$376.95

PnL

-$32.15

Record

—

2-7 (9)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 39%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

21 of 36 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sniperYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 65% · 17

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 32

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.