Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (65%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on November 2?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 36¢ · $440 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$440.04
-$56.61
50.1¢ → 35.5¢
-29% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 65%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR | Noavg 53.5¢ | $237.42 | $153 | -$73.12 | 61% 2345-1531 (3876) |
BI Bilberry | Yesavg 45.2¢ | $101.13 | $151.01 | +$49.88 | 54% 3380-2917 (6297) |
 IstarothCTR | Noavg 45.6¢ | $180.4 | $125.95 | -$34.27 | 17% 399-1952 (2351) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 65.4¢ | $13.45 | $6.89 | +$0.61 | 57% 17228-12894 (30122) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100 | Noavg 24.5¢ | $1.27 | $1.71 | +$0.44 | 38% 681-1132 (1813) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $1.62 | $1.47 | -$0.15 | 46% 1568-1827 (3395) |
Invested
$237.42
Value
$153
PnL
-$73.12
Record
61%
2345-1531 (3876)
Invested
$101.13
Value
$151.01
PnL
+$49.88
Record
54%
3380-2917 (6297)
IstarothCTRInvested
$180.4
Value
$125.95
PnL
-$34.27
Record
17%
399-1952 (2351)
Invested
$13.45
Value
$6.89
PnL
+$0.61
Record
57%
17228-12894 (30122)
Invested
$1.27
Value
$1.71
PnL
+$0.44
Record
38%
681-1132 (1813)
Invested
$1.62
Value
$1.47
PnL
-$0.15
Record
46%
1568-1827 (3395)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.