Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on October 30?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 77¢ · $404 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
2 arb excluded
$404.24
-$50.94
91¢ → 77¢
-15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 92.9¢ | $175.35 | $137.72 | -$37.63 | 56% 358-287 (645) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 77.1¢ | $127.52 | $120 | -$3.26 | 21% 295-1102 (1397) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 77.1¢ | $92.58 | $94.62 | +$2.04 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 25.3¢ | $30.34 | $25.38 | -$5.3 | |
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Yesavg 7.5¢ | $36.57 | $76.32 | +$39.75 | 59% 1723-1189 (2912) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 7.5¢ | $19.71 | $55.56 | +$38.61 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 74.5¢ | $19.62 | $20.75 | +$1.13 | |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90.7¢ | $69.35 | $51.15 | -$12.96 | 57% 13544-10382 (23926) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $14.6 | $14.6 | +$0 | 61% 20945-13330 (34275) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.9¢ | $4.79 | $4.45 | -$0.34 | 53% 6464-5663 (12127) |
Invested
$175.35
Value
$137.72
PnL
-$37.63
Record
56%
358-287 (645)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$127.52
Value
$120
PnL
-$3.26
Record
21%
295-1102 (1397)
Both legs:
Invested
$36.57
Value
$76.32
PnL
+$39.75
Record
59%
1723-1189 (2912)
Both legs:
Invested
$69.35
Value
$51.15
PnL
-$12.96
Record
57%
13544-10382 (23926)
balthazar<$100Invested
$14.6
Value
$14.6
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20945-13330 (34275)
Invested
$4.79
Value
$4.45
PnL
-$0.34
Record
53%
6464-5663 (12127)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.