Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on November 1?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 64¢ · $415 held · ends Nov 1

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$415.31

Combined PnL

$10.33

Smart Money Entry

62.4¢ → 64¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$296.73

Total Shares464

Combined PnL+$10.19

Yes2 traders

Total Value$118.58

Total Shares242

Combined PnL+$0.14

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 65.8¢	$172.88	$168.03	-$4.85	55% 439-359 (798)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 47.3¢	$94.65	$98	+$0.35	59% 1862-1301 (3163)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 58.7¢	$89.58	$71.51	+$8.58	53% 6624-5811 (12435)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100	Noavg 56.8¢	$50.74	$57.2	+$6.46	50% 658-656 (1314)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$18.06	$20.58	-$0.21	19% 335-1419 (1754)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$172.88

Value

$168.03

PnL

-$4.85

Record

55%

439-359 (798)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.65

Value

$98

PnL

+$0.35

Record

59%

1862-1301 (3163)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$89.58

Value

$71.51

PnL

+$8.58

Record

53%

6624-5811 (12435)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100

Invested

$50.74

Value

$57.2

PnL

+$6.46

Record

50%

658-656 (1314)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.06

Value

$20.58

PnL

-$0.21

Record

19%

335-1419 (1754)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.