Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on November 3?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 86¢ · $954 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$954.3
$104.18
74¢ → 86¢
+16% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 72.9¢ | $394.96 | $463.54 | +$68.58 | 50% 725-718 (1443) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 75.8¢ | $286.74 | $323.28 | +$36.55 | 50% 2032-1997 (4029) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 73.6¢ | $145.88 | $144.51 | -$0.36 | 17% 393-1939 (2332) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $15 | $14.74 | -$0.26 | 21% 2257-8431 (10688) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.6¢ | $5.25 | $4.84 | -$0.41 | 57% 17226-12892 (30118) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $2.91 | $2.99 | +$0.08 | 47% 1566-1776 (3342) |
Invested
$394.96
Value
$463.54
PnL
+$68.58
Record
50%
725-718 (1443)
Invested
$286.74
Value
$323.28
PnL
+$36.55
Record
50%
2032-1997 (4029)
IstarothInvested
$145.88
Value
$144.51
PnL
-$0.36
Record
17%
393-1939 (2332)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$15
Value
$14.74
PnL
-$0.26
Record
21%
2257-8431 (10688)
Invested
$5.25
Value
$4.84
PnL
-$0.41
Record
57%
17226-12892 (30118)
Invested
$2.91
Value
$2.99
PnL
+$0.08
Record
47%
1566-1776 (3342)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.