Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on November 1?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 68¢ · $901 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
2 arb excluded
$900.98
$300.51
21.9¢ → 68¢
+211% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+17 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 17.9¢ | $132.88 | $438.92 | +$306.03 | 50% 673-672 (1345) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 73.1¢ | $428.58 | $287.25 | -$106.43 | 18% 364-1623 (1987) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 73.1¢ | $313.77 | $197.48 | -$123.99 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 37.8¢ | $72.28 | $89.77 | +$17.56 | |
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Noavg 65.1¢ | $144.31 | $118.81 | -$25.5 | 59% 1919-1349 (3268) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65.1¢ | $116.91 | $70.01 | -$46.9 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 34.3¢ | $27.4 | $48.8 | +$21.4 | |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $50.49 | $44.77 | -$3.33 | 54% 466-390 (856) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 56.7¢ | $16.67 | $11.23 | -$2.19 | 53% 6686-5884 (12570) |
Invested
$132.88
Value
$438.92
PnL
+$306.03
Record
50%
673-672 (1345)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$428.58
Value
$287.25
PnL
-$106.43
Record
18%
364-1623 (1987)
Both legs:
Invested
$144.31
Value
$118.81
PnL
-$25.5
Record
59%
1919-1349 (3268)
Both legs:
Invested
$50.49
Value
$44.77
PnL
-$3.33
Record
54%
466-390 (856)
Invested
$16.67
Value
$11.23
PnL
-$2.19
Record
53%
6686-5884 (12570)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.