Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on October 29?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 92¢ · $63 held · ends Oct 29

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$63.2

Combined PnL

$8.25

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$20.07

Total Shares279

Combined PnL+$8.13

No3 traders

Total Value$43.13

Total Shares47

Combined PnL+$0.11

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$11.58	$19.68	+$8.1	60% 1636-1103 (2739)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 91.7¢	$19.78	$19.6	-$0.18	50% 1689-1672 (3361)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 90¢	$17.22	$17.52	+$0.3	57% 13257-10098 (23355)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 86¢	$6.18	$6.01	-$0.01	24% 285-894 (1179)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.6¢	$0.35	$0.39	+$0.03	53% 6381-5587 (11968)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.58

Value

$19.68

PnL

+$8.1

Record

60%

1636-1103 (2739)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$19.78

Value

$19.6

PnL

-$0.18

Record

50%

1689-1672 (3361)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$17.22

Value

$17.52

PnL

+$0.3

Record

57%

13257-10098 (23355)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$6.18

Value

$6.01

PnL

-$0.01

Record

24%

285-894 (1179)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.39

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

6381-5587 (11968)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.9%

91.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.