Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (61%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on October 30?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 40¢ · $416 held · ends Oct 30

Yes61¢No39¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$415.56

Combined PnL

-$20.4

Smart Money Entry

62.4¢ → 39.5¢

-37% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes61%

No40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$83.02

Total Shares133

Combined PnL+$9.92

No2 traders

Total Value$92.26

Total Shares201

Combined PnL-$30.32

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 62.7¢	$248.84	$240.28	-$1.94	21% 300-1139 (1439)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.8¢	$90.8	$129.75	+$38.28
└ No leg	Noavg 62.7¢	$150.7	$110.53	-$40.23
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 46.7¢	$71.42	$80.62	+$9.2	59% 1743-1208 (2951)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR	Noavg 62.4¢	$108.32	$79.86	-$25.86	55% 369-296 (665)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 62.6¢	$16.87	$12.41	-$4.46	57% 13599-10421 (24020)
fildoro<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$1.65	$2.4	+$0.73	62% 1439-885 (2324)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$248.84

Value

$240.28

PnL

-$1.94

Record

21%

300-1139 (1439)

Both legs:

Invested

$71.42

Value

$80.62

PnL

+$9.2

Record

59%

1743-1208 (2951)

HellYeahTraderCTR

Invested

$108.32

Value

$79.86

PnL

-$25.86

Record

55%

369-296 (665)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$16.87

Value

$12.41

PnL

-$4.46

Record

57%

13599-10421 (24020)

fildoro<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.65

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.73

Record

62%

1439-885 (2324)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 40%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.