Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on October 31?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 59¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.1K
$9.65
58.1¢ → 59¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 61.7¢ | $576.75 | $539.77 | -$23.59 | 20% 312-1272 (1584) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 39.6¢ | $333.39 | $345.34 | +$11.95 | 47% 665-744 (1409) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 51¢ | $173.55 | $186.35 | +$18.72 | 55% 410-331 (741) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.9¢ | $35.59 | $37.55 | +$0.13 | 59% 1800-1250 (3050) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $33.55 | $35.99 | +$2.44 | 53% 6540-5754 (12294) |
IstarothInvested
$576.75
Value
$539.77
PnL
-$23.59
Record
20%
312-1272 (1584)
Invested
$333.39
Value
$345.34
PnL
+$11.95
Record
47%
665-744 (1409)
Invested
$173.55
Value
$186.35
PnL
+$18.72
Record
55%
410-331 (741)
Invested
$35.59
Value
$37.55
PnL
+$0.13
Record
59%
1800-1250 (3050)
Invested
$33.55
Value
$35.99
PnL
+$2.44
Record
53%
6540-5754 (12294)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.