Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 13 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on November 4?

13 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 0.4¢ · $719 held · ends Nov 4

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 93%

Total Value

$719.05

Combined PnL

-$555.88

Smart Money Entry

64.3¢ → 0.4¢

-99% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 14 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$530.57

Total Shares1,679

Combined PnL-$560.63

Yes1 trader

Total Value$188.48

Total Shares190

Combined PnL+$4.75

No — 93%Yes — 7%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO PoligarchCTR	Noavg 66¢	$292.95	$312.3	+$19.35	53% 9849-8576 (18425)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Noavg 85¢	$409.11	$210.07	+$48.65	42% 795-1109 (1904)
HE HellYeahTrader	Yesavg 96.7¢	$183.73	$188.48	+$4.75	56% 621-495 (1116)
GH ghorrockCTR	Noavg 76.2¢	$199.51	$5.29	-$57.95	58% 19232-14159 (33391)
2B9SCTR<$100	Noavg 16.2¢	$33.08	$0.72	-$32.36	18% 4236-19937 (24173)
24 241532532432CTR	Noavg 93¢	$278.08	$0.6	-$277.48	58% 2456-1793 (4249)
HE hello.67CTR	Noavg 88.1¢	$251.16	$0.55	-$241.8	48% 2120-2300 (4420)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 2.5¢	$1.7	$0.27	-$1.17	31% 2304-5170 (7474)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Noavg 85.2¢	$75.39	$0.18	+$9.54	53% 3758-3366 (7124)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 59.6¢	$50.76	$0.15	-$44.22	53% 28804-25713 (54517)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 5.2¢	$3.61	$0.14	-$3.48	35% 17800-33165 (50965)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 0.7¢	$0.5	$0.14	-$0.37	41% 1145-1641 (2786)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$74.42	$0.12	-$42.14	79% 12088-3268 (15356)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 0.9¢	$2.35	$0.05	+$62.78	40% 2104-3149 (5253)

PoligarchCTR

Invested

$292.95

Value

$312.3

PnL

+$19.35

Record

53%

9849-8576 (18425)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Invested

$409.11

Value

$210.07

PnL

+$48.65

Record

42%

795-1109 (1904)

HellYeahTrader

Yes

Invested

$183.73

Value

$188.48

PnL

+$4.75

Record

56%

621-495 (1116)

ghorrockCTR

Invested

$199.51

Value

$5.29

PnL

-$57.95

Record

58%

19232-14159 (33391)

2B9SCTR<$100

Invested

$33.08

Value

$0.72

PnL

-$32.36

Record

18%

4236-19937 (24173)

241532532432CTR

Invested

$278.08

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$277.48

Record

58%

2456-1793 (4249)

hello.67CTR

Invested

$251.16

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$241.8

Record

48%

2120-2300 (4420)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$1.7

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$1.17

Record

31%

2304-5170 (7474)

BilberryCTR<$100

Invested

$75.39

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$9.54

Record

53%

3758-3366 (7124)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$50.76

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$44.22

Record

53%

28804-25713 (54517)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$3.61

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$3.48

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.37

Record

41%

1145-1641 (2786)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$74.42

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$42.14

Record

79%

12088-3268 (15356)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$2.35

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$62.78

Record

40%

2104-3149 (5253)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 14 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6472.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

6572.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.