Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on November 5?

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 74¢ · $828 held · ends Nov 5

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$828.45

Combined PnL

-$4.05

Smart Money Entry

68.1¢ → 74¢

+9% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 15 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$529.03

Total Shares670

Combined PnL+$17.8

Yes3 traders

Total Value$180.87

Total Shares739

Combined PnL-$21.85

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 69.2¢	$349.9	$348.1	-$1.8	58% 2476-1805 (4281)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 72.8¢	$141.83	$118.54	-$7.48	15% 447-2555 (3002)
└ No leg	Noavg 72.8¢	$86.28	$90.68	+$3.35
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32.3¢	$38.3	$27.86	-$10.83
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$97.49	$94.02	-$3.47	53% 3776-3383 (7159)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.8¢	$99.44	$82.26	-$17.18	42% 795-1109 (1904)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 62.3¢	$64.51	$76.65	+$12.14	60% 11636-7873 (19509)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 69.2¢	$24.62	$26.33	+$1.71	47% 1638-1811 (3449)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 75¢	$16.66	$16.52	-$0.14	53% 9883-8605 (18488)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 68¢	$13.77	$14.98	+$1.21	39% 1023-1615 (2638)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 68¢	$23.33	$11.59	+$1.34	58% 19232-14159 (33391)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 71¢	$8.61	$8.97	+$0.36	39% 1000-1544 (2544)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 68.5¢	$6.94	$7.5	+$0.56	55% 4369-3567 (7936)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 63¢	$5.13	$6.02	+$0.9	39% 1012-1603 (2615)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 63¢	$5.12	$6.02	+$0.89	40% 2112-3153 (5265)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$5.8	$4.6	-$1.2	18% 4246-19975 (24221)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 70¢	$3.5	$3.83	+$0.33	78% 12157-3379 (15536)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 67¢	$2.22	$2.54	+$0.31	49% 555-588 (1143)

241532532432

Invested

$349.9

Value

$348.1

PnL

-$1.8

Record

58%

2476-1805 (4281)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$141.83

Value

$118.54

PnL

-$7.48

Record

15%

447-2555 (3002)

Both legs:

Invested

$97.49

Value

$94.02

PnL

-$3.47

Record

53%

3776-3383 (7159)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.44

Value

$82.26

PnL

-$17.18

Record

42%

795-1109 (1904)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$64.51

Value

$76.65

PnL

+$12.14

Record

60%

11636-7873 (19509)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$24.62

Value

$26.33

PnL

+$1.71

Record

47%

1638-1811 (3449)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$16.66

Value

$16.52

PnL

-$0.14

Record

53%

9883-8605 (18488)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$13.77

Value

$14.98

PnL

+$1.21

Record

39%

1023-1615 (2638)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$23.33

Value

$11.59

PnL

+$1.34

Record

58%

19232-14159 (33391)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$8.61

Value

$8.97

PnL

+$0.36

Record

39%

1000-1544 (2544)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$6.94

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$0.56

Record

55%

4369-3567 (7936)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.13

Value

$6.02

PnL

+$0.9

Record

39%

1012-1603 (2615)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.12

Value

$6.02

PnL

+$0.89

Record

40%

2112-3153 (5265)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.8

Value

$4.6

PnL

-$1.2

Record

18%

4246-19975 (24221)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.83

PnL

+$0.33

Record

78%

12157-3379 (15536)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$2.22

Value

$2.54

PnL

+$0.31

Record

49%

555-588 (1143)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 15 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.